Housing, an essential sector in deep crisis, abandoned by the government

Asked about the existence of a crisis in the main source of expenditure for the French, 83% of people questioned at the beginning of January by Viavoice responded in the affirmative. And for 76%, the government has “not done what is necessary” to resolve it.

According to the industry, the “social bomb of tomorrow” predicted by the former Minister of Housing Olivier Klein has already exploded.

“Out of 330.000 homeless people, 30% have a job. It is housing today which is the factor of exclusion, and no longer work,” underlines Loïc Cantin, president of the National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim).

Main trigger: the sharp rise in central bank key rates in 2022 to fight inflation. With a snowball effect, it caused real estate rates to rise and pushed banks to close the credit tap.

“The situation was not great before but the French at least had access to credit at very advantageous rates,” observes Thomas Lefebvre, scientific director of SeLoger.

Since January 2022, borrowing capacity has fallen by 25%, according to Fnaim, pointing to a 22% drop in sales in existing properties in 2023, the “largest annual decline in more than 50 years”.

“Worst level”

France is not in its first crisis. A series of deaths had already pushed Abbé Pierre to launch his call for solidarity with the homeless 70 years ago.

But since 2022, the ECB's ten key rate increases have increased the problems.

Among them, the continued decline in the production of social housing since 2018, under the triple effect of the drop in subsidies, the increase in construction costs and the State's levies on landlords.

According to the Social Union for Housing (USH), representing social landlords, social housing authorizations should fall below 85.000 in 2023, the "worst level since 2005", while "198.000 per year". As for the number of applications for social housing, it reached the unprecedented number of 2,6 million.

Unable to buy, households have resorted to renting. In five years, the supply has fallen by 59%, recalls Fnaim.

Already in poor shape, the new construction sector has plunged, with -25,5% in building permits and 294.700 construction starts over one year, when needs are estimated between 400.000 and 500.000.

“We have already lost 8.000 employees at the end of 2023 and we are forecasting a recession of 5% in 2024,” Olivier Salleron, president of the French Building Federation, told AFP, anticipating 300.000 job losses in 2025.

Rigor

In this slump, the absence of regulatory measures is surprising.

“Unlike past crises”, the State has not taken any “general measure to support home ownership or specific rental investment”, analyzes the think tank Terra Nova in a report published Monday .

“There is in the public sphere the idea that in reality we do not need housing, taking into account demographic projections, the number of vacant homes and second homes,” deplores Véronique Bédague to Le Monde, CEO of Nexity.

In 2023, the government has "generally pursued a policy marked by the seal of budgetary rigor", regrets Christophe Robert, general delegate of the Abbé Pierre Foundation, citing the amputation of the zero-rate loan and the "end of the Pinel system of rental investment assistance.

On the other hand, no proposal "to regulate the market (control of rents, land and furnished tourist accommodation) has been accepted", he underlines.

For Thomas Lefebvre, the government's strategy is to "bring back institutional investors (banks, insurance companies, editor's note) to support construction and rental".

As for the idea that the drop in sales leads to a drop in prices, "it seems a very risky bet because the scarcity of supply and the pressure of demand mean that prices are substantial", notes Jean-Claude Bassien, Deputy CEO of Nexity.

And the absence of a minister dedicated to housing fuels criticism of a “lack of direction”.