If the volumes lost during the containment of March 2020 will never be filled, the return to a “normalization” of trends continues and, in January, the productions of aggregates and ready-mixed concrete were above their average monthly level of the last ten years. . This encouraging observation reflects a form of gradual catching up of the lost path, but demand indicators, on the building and public works side, suggest that the pace of activity in the coming months could be slowed down by the depletion of order books which, today '' hui, struggling to replenish.
January, above average
According to the provisional results for January, the production of aggregates and ready-mixed concrete should be above the average for the months of January over the past ten years (+ 2,2% for aggregates and + 3,7% for BPE, in raw data). The activity would therefore have "held up" at the start of the year: the tonnages of aggregates show an increase of + 6% compared to December and + 0,5% compared to January 2020 which, let us remember, had been very dynamic (CSV-CJO data). During the last three months, production would have continued to increase compared to the previous quarter (+ 4,4%) but also compared to the same three months a year ago (+ 2,4%).
Over twelve months, the annual change thus came to -7,5% at the end of January. On the BPE side, January deliveries grew by + 2,8% compared to December but are down -2,3% compared to very vigorous January 2020 (CVS-CJO data). Cumulatively over the last three months, ready-mixed concrete production still climbed + 3,2% compared to the same period last year, but more moderately compared to the previous three months (+ 0,9%). Over the last twelve months, the trend remains strongly downward with a drop of -9,7% in volumes produced over one year. As for the Materials indicator, despite the sharp recovery observed in the second half of the year, 2020 ends with an annual decline of -6,4% and January should be slightly down compared to last year (-0,7, XNUMX% in CJO).
Confident building contractors, worried developers
The months go by and look the same: in February 2021, according to the survey conducted by INSEE among building contractors, confidence remains in place and the business outlook remains rather positive for the coming months. Not only is their judgment on the order books improving (with levels still above 9 months in the shell) but their opinion on the expected evolution of the workforce is recovering, no doubt in response to a labor force. reduced in recent months.
In fact, in February, around one in five entrepreneurs said they were faced with productive tensions due to a lack of personnel. However, on the construction side, housing starts and authorizations remain in the red, even if the recovery continues on the side of housing permits. Indeed, at the end of January and over the last three months, the number of homes started fell by -11,2% compared to the previous three months, the decline being more marked in the collective segment than in that of the individual. Over twelve months, there were 345 sites open at the end of January, a drop of 000% over one year.
As regards authorizations, on the other hand, the last three months have recorded a further increase of + 9,6% compared to the previous quarter, this time with more sustained momentum for collective housing. However, over the last twelve months, the balance sheet remains very negative with a contraction of permits of -16,3% (to 377 units), the collective segment showing a plunge of -600% of deposits. Finally, with regard to business premises, the decline continued.At the end of January, cumulatively over three months, the areas started fell by -23,5% over one year (offices, industrial premises and warehouses showing the lowest declines). more pronounced), while, over twelve months, the decline reached -21,4%. The permit figures leave no hope of a trend reversal in the months to come, authorized areas falling by -18,4% over the quarter and -15,6% over twelve months. These developments echo the real estate development situation, which was particularly gloomy in 19,1. Despite a marked increase in block sales to institutional investors and social housing organizations (+ 2020%), sales contracted by a quarter between 7,2 and 2019 (-2020 homes sold). Beyond the effects of the health crisis, the Fédération des Promoteurs Immobiliers -FPI also points out the political obstacles (blocking of permits in metropolitan areas) and the multiplication of regulatory constraints (in particular the RE40) to explain the fall in the supply of housing, by about a third in a year.
In 2020, listings fell by nearly -28% for reservations down -24,1%. The melting of stocks (-9% in 2020) should therefore continue in 2021 even though household demand remains strong; an unbalanced situation which could result in further pressure on prices, already pulled up in 2020: the average price per m² of a new apartment has risen by + 1,7%, that of a house by +4,5 , 232%, evolutions which risk in the long term keeping households away from home ownership. Admittedly, the single-family home market in the diffuse sector has shown signs of resilience at the start of the year, no doubt thanks to the relaxation of the HSCF recommendations. But banks' requirements in terms of personal contribution will continue to strengthen and, in a context where rates can hardly fall further and where loan terms have already lengthened considerably (2021 months on average in February XNUMX). ), the rise in property prices could well put an end to this improvement.
Public works: lack of visibility
Interviewed in January 2021, public works contractors were certainly a little less negative about their future activity than in the fall, but their order books were still slow to replenish. In 2020, according to the FNTP, activity will have fallen by -12,5% in volume and order intake will have plunged -13,2% (CVS-CJO). In the road works segment, the dropout is even more pronounced, with turnover falling -14,4% in 2020 and the volume of calls for tenders contracting by -31%. According to Routes de France, "the natural cycle of calls for tenders has not yet resumed in the municipal block" and, in January, their number was still -15% below that of January 2020. Only the mobilization of communities local authorities to initiate the recovery plan in the regions will make it possible to replenish order books and give visibility to local players.