It is in the Construction and “other productions” sector (Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing, Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, Extractive industries) that companies are most optimistic. . However, the outlook continues to deteriorate in the hotel and restaurant sector.
Among the main lessons from this edition:
- Only one sector shows hiring forecasts on the rise: that of “other productions” (Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing, Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, Extractive industries). Its Net Employment Forecast of + 5% in the first quarter of 2021 corresponds to an increase of 1 point in one quarter, and also of 1 point in one year.
The construction sector has also seen its Net Employment Forecast reach + 5%, but this represents a decrease of -8 points compared to the previous quarter, and -16 points in one year. The hotel and catering sector posted a strongly negative Net Employment Forecast (-15%), down -39 points one year.
- Hiring intentions are the most positive in the Center-East, with a Net Employment Forecast of + 4%, or 3 points of progress compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. In the Paris region, the Net Employment Forecast fell -9%, down -27 points in one year.
- Only large companies have a positive Net Employment Forecast: + 5%, up 2 points in one quarter. It is in medium-sized companies that hiring intentions decrease the most, with a Net Employment Forecast of -2%, a drop of -19 points in one year.
“This barometer reflects the strong uncertainties weighing on our economy. Before the second wave of Covid-19, the Banque de France expected economic activity to be reduced by 8,7% in 2020. Today, we anticipate a more serious contraction, of 10 to 11% of GDP over the year. This explains the wait-and-see attitude of business leaders, especially in the hotel and catering sector, which has lost more than 150.000 jobs since the start of the health crisis. However, we do not observe, as last spring, a decrease in hiring intentions ”.
Alain Roumilhac, President of ManpowerGroup France
Q1 2021 down compared to the previous quarter, but better than Q2020 XNUMX
Against the backdrop of a strong recovery in the Covid-19 epidemic, employers surveyed in France by ManpowerGroup announce a net employment forecast of 0%. This figure corresponds to a decrease compared to the previous quarter (-4 points), but also to a sharp drop since the same period in 2020: -13 points. This forecast is however better than that of the third quarter of 2020, during the first containment. The Net Employment Forecast in France was then established at -11%.
Compared to the previous quarter, an increase in the Center-East, but a sharp drop in the Paris region
- In the five regions studied, three show positive hiring intentions.
- The Center-East has the highest Net Employment Forecast: + 4%. It gained 3 points compared to the previous quarter, but lost -9 points compared to the first quarter of 2020.
- The Paris region is the one that has recorded the biggest drop in its Net Employment Forecast: -9%, ie a drop of -8 points compared to the previous quarter, and -27 points in one year.
- It is in the South that the decrease appears the least strong: the Net Employment Forecast reached + 3%, ie a fall of -4 points compared to the previous quarter, and -6 points in one year.
Hiring intentions in sharp decline in the hotel and restaurant sector
- Hiring intentions are positive in 3 sectors of activity out of the 7 studied. In 2 sectors, they progressed compared to the previous quarter.
- In the “Other production” sector, the Net Employment Forecast reached + 5%, an increase of 1 point in one quarter, as over one year.
- The manufacturing sector, with a zero hiring forecast, is up 3 points in one quarter, but loses -13 points in one year.
- With a Net Employment Forecast of -15%, the hotel and catering sector remains the one that has experienced the greatest fall in one quarter (-10 points) as in one year: -39 points.
Large companies post higher hiring intentions compared to the previous quarter
- In the four categories of companies studied, only one displays hiring forecasts in progress compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.
- Large companies (more than 250 employees) are announcing positive hiring intentions (+ 5%), an increase of 2 points compared to the previous quarter. This figure, however, corresponds to a drop of -20 points in one year.
- Mid-size companies (50 to 249 employees) are those with the least favorable hiring forecasts: -2%, a figure down -8 points compared to the previous quarter, and -19 points in one year .
- In small businesses (12 to 49 employees), the Net Employment Forecast is displayed at zero. This corresponds to a decrease of -5 points compared to the previous quarter, and a decrease of -13 points in one year.
International
Taiwan and the United States continue to lead the hiring forecasts. 33 countries report positive Net Employment Forecasts.
Compared to the previous quarter, hiring intentions appear to be down in only 7 of the 43 countries studied.
- Taiwan tops the rankings, with a Net Employment Forecast of + 23% for the period January-March 2021. This corresponds to an increase of 2 points compared to the previous quarter.
- In second place, we find the United States, with a Net Employment Forecast of + 17%, or 3 points more than in the previous quarter.
- Singapore, with a Net Employment Forecast of + 15%, comes third.
- In the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East and Africa), out of the 26 countries studied, 5 show a negative Net Employment Forecast. It is in the United Kingdom that it is weakest, at -6%, losing -7 points in one year. Ireland, with + 7%, posted the most favorable forecasts for the region, and gained 9 points in one quarter.
The full results of the study for the 43 countries are available here