Growth will be "at least equal to 5%" in 2021, according to the governor of the Banque de France

This forecast "confirms" that of 5% made by the central bank in December, while "the recession is behind us", according to the governor.

This growth will be "one of the strongest in Europe, significantly higher than the European average", he assured. The government, for its part, expects growth of 6% this year.

"In front of us, we have a second stage which will last about a year" and "which is basically a false flat, that is to say that there will be fewer accidents and that we will continue to go up a gentle slope ", which will bring the level of activity back to its pre-crisis level by spring or summer 2022, when it is currently 5% below, detailed M Villeroy de Galhau.

The Banque de France on Monday published an economic report which forecasts slightly positive growth for the first quarter, before the publication of more complete forecasts for the whole of the year next Monday.

The recovery of the French economy "will depend on consumer confidence" once the health restrictions are lifted, said the governor, adding that "the public depreciation (measures to support the economy) must be relayed by the private trust ".

He wanted to be optimistic, in particular because employment and public investment resisted "rather better than could be feared" to the Covid-19 crisis, which in 2020 caused a historic recession of 8,2, XNUMX% of the French economy.

OECD sharply raises global growth forecast to 5,6% in 2021

The OECD sharply revised upwards its forecast for global growth in 2021, to 5,6% from 4,2%, counting on the combined effects of the US mega-stimulus plan and vaccination, in its interim economic outlook published Tuesday.

"The global economic outlook has improved markedly in recent months due to the gradual roll-out of effective vaccines, the announcement of new support measures in some countries and signs that economies are coping better than expected with the restrictions. ", explains the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

On its own, the $ 1.900 trillion plan wanted by US President Joe Biden to revive the world's largest economy contributes 1 percentage point to this 1,4 point revision of global growth, explained to the AFP Laurence Boone, the chief economist of this organization which brings together 37 developed countries.

Thanks to this massive injection of liquidity, the United States, which counts one fifth of deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic, should see its rate of GDP growth double compared to what was expected in December, at 6,5, XNUMX%. Without causing any major inflationary risk, Ms. Boone believes.

The growth gain is more modest for the euro zone, where the vaccination program is slipping: continental GDP is expected to grow 3,9% this year, when the United Kingdom, where schools reopened on Monday, is expected to post growth of 5,1%

For France, the OECD expects a rebound of 5,9%, virtually unchanged from its latest forecasts, 5,7% for Spain, 4,1% for Italy and 3% for the Germany.

Engine of world growth, China, where exports jumped 60% in one year in January-February, is expected to post a growth of 7,8%. But it is in India that the rebound is most spectacular: after plunging 7,4% in 2020, GDP is expected to grow by 12,6% this year.

There are, however, risks weighing on growth: too slow a rate of vaccination or "the emergence of new variants resistant to existing vaccines".

"The faster countries vaccinate, the faster they can reopen their economies (...) Our main message is therefore to speed up the pace of vaccination to reopen the economy," said Boone.

More than 304,8 million doses of anti-Covid vaccines have been administered worldwide, a figure that hides profound disparities: Israel has vaccinated nearly 60% of its population, the United States nearly 20%, France around 5% and Brazil 3%, according to OECD calculations.