As soon as the announcement of the reconfinement in 16 departments has passed, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire has scolded its expected impact on the French economy: 110.000 shops closed, 0,2 point of gross domestic product (GDP) lost on the year and an additional € 1,2 billion in monthly spending to support businesses.
Among the measures announced Thursday evening by Prime Minister Jean Castex, the closure of so-called non-essential shops and departments is the one that will have the most significant consequences on activity.
It will once again constrain household consumption, the main engine of French growth, even if part of it will focus on online sales.
This time, "the drop should be a little less" than during previous confinements, judge Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING bank, because the restrictions do not affect the entire population and because consumers and businesses have adapted .
The regions concerned "represent millions of jobs and account for 40% of French GDP", however, underlines the Medef to AFP, adding that this reconfinement "will obviously have consequences on companies and on the morale of entrepreneurs and employees. ".
The Minister of Public Accounts Olivier Dussopt was optimistic, confirming the forecast of a growth of 6% this year despite the new measures, supposed at this stage to last a month.
"I am convinced that the 6% is achievable", he said Friday morning, estimating that there are "grounds for hope from an economic point of view".
He notably cited the level of VAT receipts in January, which testifies to a good performance in household consumption, the resilience of investment at the end of the year, and the strong rebound which had marked the exit of the first confinement.
The Banque de France estimated this week that French growth should reach 5,5% this year, a forecast based on the hypothesis of "a combination of periods of tightening of measures and periods of relative relaxation" in the first semester.
The reconfinement "completely delays the prospects for recovery of the economy," said Charlotte de Montpellier, however, with a lifting of restrictions which is still moving away.
The goal of 6% growth "is increasingly unattainable," she told AFP.
The issue at this stage is the speed of the pace of vaccination, she said. And "for the moment there is nothing to be very optimistic on this point".
"Ultimately that postpones the real take-off of the French economy to always later. And the more this take-off is postponed, the more it risks being less dynamic", affecting the confidence of businesses and households and aggravating the difficulties in certain sectors, she judges.
7,2 billion per month
For the businesses concerned, it is also the cold shower. "It is the hardest hypothesis that has been adopted, it is a real disaster," lamented Jacques Creyssel, general delegate of the Federation of Commerce and Distribution (FCD).
The employers' confederation CPME is therefore asking for new aid for small businesses, in particular "real payment of rents".
For now, the Ministry of the Economy is counting on increased use of existing aid: the solidarity fund (600 million additional expenditure planned over a month), partial unemployment (400 million) and tax exemptions (200 million million).
Companies with more than 1 million euros of monthly turnover will also be able to see their fixed costs covered between 70% and 90%, and this retroactively to January 1.
Added to the expenditure already planned, this brings the cost of the support measures currently in force to 7,2 billion euros per month, said Bruno Le Maire.