Global warming: what electrical impact of the deployment of air conditioning in French homes by 2050?

Based on real data from the Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur region and those extrapolated to 2050, it reveals that air conditioning can double daily electricity consumption in the worst-case scenario and therefore household energy bills. .

Temperature gradients are already having an effect on consumption: 15°C higher than normal in summer leads to additional consumption of 2,5 EPR, whereas air conditioning equipment is currently marginal. This situation could occur regularly as early as 2050.

Electricity demand and public health: the new challenges

In developed areas, heat waves create difficult living conditions and therefore an increase in electricity needs for air conditioning.

“The latest IPCC reports again warn of global warming and the vulnerability of populations to heat waves that are set to multiply and intensify. In these less and less bearable conditions, the use of air conditioning is increasing and equipment is multiplying in homes as people seek to cool off. Air conditioning then goes from a role of comfort to that of a prevention and public health tool, especially for the most fragile and precarious. As a result, household electricity consumption is increasing and powering these devices is becoming a critical need for those whose health depends on it,” explains Cyril Gillot, Energy Consultant for Colombus Consulting.

When temperatures are high, electrical networks are vulnerable and their transmission capacity reduced. However, at the same time, electricity needs tend to increase with air conditioning. In France, a scissors effect is already perceptible on the infrastructures of the electricity network during heat waves and tends to increase.

With a household air conditioning rate of only 5%, RTE estimated that +250 to 300 MW consumed for each additional degree above 25°C: ie the needs of a city like Nantes. A figure that could increase sharply when the rate of air conditioning equipment increases...

What building cooling needs for 2050?

Through modeling work based on technical, climatic and human factors, the study conducted by Colombus Consulting and Callendar made it possible to represent several possible futures and to estimate the evolution of the cooling needs of residential buildings. After restitution and analysis, the following results came out:

• Better efficiency of the air conditioner has more short-term impact on reducing electricity consumption linked to air conditioning than greater insulation of the dwelling (except in the case of thermal sieves). It is therefore on this point that the public authorities must act as quickly as possible for questions of the efficiency of adaptation to climate change and the purchasing power of citizens in a context of high energy prices.
• Thermal colanders, classified in performance F and G, must be eliminated to avoid overconsumption for generally precarious households.
• Beyond the strengthening of resources, alternative approaches and directions must be found by the public authorities concerning the renovation of housing, in order to optimize efforts and maximize effects.
• Temperature gradients are already having an effect on consumption: 15°C more than normal in summer leads to additional consumption of 2,5 EPR, whereas air conditioning equipment is currently marginal. This situation could occur regularly as early as 2050.
• The increase in electricity consumption due to air conditioning in summer should not put the electricity distribution network in difficulty because it remains lower than that induced by electric heating during winter. However, the risks of initiation and rupture of the buried network must be studied on a case-by-case basis, in particular for areas where larger areas than residential are connected.

The capacities of electrical installations are reduced with the rise in average temperatures: + 5°C compared to normal reduces the transmission capacity of power lines by 7 to 8%. Material failures, related to heat, addressed by network operators, multiply with a risk of initiation, because the expansion of the cables reduces the safety distance under the lines, causes ruptures on the buried networks as well as anomalies. transformer measurements.

The study concludes that there is a need to strengthen efficiency standards for air conditioning equipment, as well as to evolve certain strategies and public policies in order to optimize efforts and maximize effects.

For Cyril Gillot, Energy Consultant for Colombus Consulting: "The air conditioning causes a call for electrical power which can be controlled. The increase in power called for, induced by the air conditioning, is notable but is not critical and remains lower than that linked to heating in winter. The distribution of the air conditioning must be accompanied in order to limit the increase in consumption and the need to upgrade the electrical network."

What action levers for intelligent use of air conditioning?

The rise of air conditioning is representative of the new challenges of adaptation linked to climate change, particularly in cities in the south of France, thus raising questions of the environment, social justice or security for the electricity supply.

The study thus highlights solutions to limit the increase in electricity consumption and therefore the cost for households and the network:

• Education and awareness of sobriety, eco-gestures, efficient use of air conditioning, as well as the effects of heat and the means to protect yourself from it, in order to optimize comfort while controlling power consumption.
• The rapid establishment of stricter standards in France, in Europe... in order to improve the performance of air conditioners manufactured and used in the context of a first installation or a renewal of equipment.
• The implementation of actions, master plans and public financing in order to eliminate thermal sieves.
• The evolution of urban planning schemes in order to reduce the urban heat island phenomenon.

For Cyril Gillot, Energy Consultant for Colombus Consulting: "This is a subject that must be tackled head-on in a collegial manner, by communities, States, players in the world of energy, citizens, etc. A real strategy must be thought out urgently to try to limit inherent disasters or negative impacts."