Further delaying the energy transition would have a “considerable” cost, warns Ademe

If we maintained existing policies and the development of fossil fuels until 2030, this "delayed transition" scenario would lead to nearly $1.100 billion in stranded assets for France (i.e. have lost their value due to the climate transition) by 2050, or nearly $50 billion per year between 2030 and 2050, according to this report from the Environment and Energy Management Agency (Ademe).

This would also result in a loss of nearly 1,5 points of GDP in 2030 (around 40 billion euros if we base ourselves on the GDP of 2022) and of 5 points of GDP in 2050, compared to an action "more resolute", estimates this report, which notes "considerable costs for France" and "very probably underestimated".

In this scenario, the authors of the report envisage that public authorities will impose sudden and unanticipated policies from 2030, to catch up on long-term commitments and keep the rise in global temperature below 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era.

According to the authors of the report, this will be accompanied by frictions in the factors of production, which will weigh on the greening of energies, on the capital market (with a drop in the value of physical and financial assets in the building, extractive sectors, energy production and industry), with consequences on the labor market (productivity losses, delay in worker training).

The report takes into account two forms of climate-related risks: physical risks (acute or chronic climatic events: drop in agricultural yields, disasters in France or abroad affecting foreign trade - exports, supply chains - rise in sea ​​level, etc.) and transition risks (financial risks linked to the adjustment process towards a low-carbon economy).

These costs are certainly underestimated, note the authors of the report, because the indirect effects of climate change such as population displacements, the costs of adaptation and reconstruction are excluded, as is the impact of the loss of biodiversity. or the risks of runaway warming from a certain threshold.

“We must implement the energy transition, it is imperative to maintain habitable conditions on the planet, and we are showing that acting now and resolutely, rather than delayed, will cost much less to the world. French economy", underlines Patrick Jolivet, director of socio-economic studies at Ademe.

The cost for the economy would be even more spectacular if no transition policy was pursued, Ademe calculates: at the end of the century, inaction would cost nearly 7 points of annual GDP compared to an orderly transition. .

On the other hand, an “orderly transition” action, with the gradual implementation of policies now to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, would limit the damage.

In fact, climate warming is harmful, these calculations show: compared to a fictitious scenario without warming, France would lose 10 points of annual activity if the temperature were to reach +3,5°C at the end of the century.