For Macron and the parties, accelerated learning of parliamentarism

A new configuration

New Popular Front, presidential camp, National Rally. None of the three main political forces elected during the early legislative elections exceeds 200 seats in the hemicycle, far from the 289 elected officials necessary for an absolute majority despite an advantage for the left bloc, which came first.

Unpublished? Not entirely. During the dissolution of 1997, the presidential camp had already lost its bet, forcing Jacques Chirac into cohabitation. In 1988, François Mitterrand only obtained a relative majority.

“But the novelty is such an absence of absolute majority between three distinct blocs. One bloc is excluded from any participation in the government – ​​the RN -, and the other two blocs are neither able to govern alone, nor willing to govern together", summarizes Jean-Philippe Derosier, constitutional expert and professor at the University of Lille.

Coalition or “compromise”?

We must therefore “invent a new political culture”, affirmed Emmanuel Macron in his letter to the French on Wednesday, calling for the search for a “compromise” between parties.

Problem is, no one seems willing to agree on the contours and how to constitute this coalition. The fault lies in a balance of power as unusual in France as it is widespread among its European neighbors experienced in parliamentarism.

“Our European partners are surprised, for the most part, at our astonishment and our paralysis” while faced with the results, it seems “not rocket science” to them to form a government, notes Mélanie Vogel, co-president of the European Green Party and senator French people abroad.

“In France, as soon as we talk about compromise, it becomes a compromise. It is the Bonapartist, Jacobin and vertical tradition of the country,” explains Dominique Rousseau, constitutionalist and professor at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.

Can the left claim Matignon?

The vagueness is reinforced by the divergent interpretation of the results, depending on the camps. The left, in particular, insists that it has “won” and continues to claim Matignon.

Is she right? The practice has always allowed the first force elected in the legislative elections to submit its candidate for the position to the president.

“Arithmetically, the left bloc is first. The logic of a democratic and parliamentary regime is that it is the one which proposes a Prime Minister,” insists Jean-Philippe Derosier.

According to him, the NFP is therefore "right" to put forward its arguments, but "on the condition of showing flexibility in its program and its thinking, because the president would be justified in opposing a choice arousing a lot of hostility , like that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon".

Dominique Rousseau does not have the same interpretation. “Emmanuel Macron’s analysis is correct: as there are only minorities, no Prime Minister imposes himself,” explains the constitutionalist. “It is up to the left to show the head of state that it is capable of building a government that will not be overthrown.”

For Macron, the end of verticality?

The Head of State must also get used to this new era, after seven years of clear majority in Parliament, although relative since 2022.

“Emmanuel Macron is forced to undergo an accelerated apprenticeship in the parliamentary regime. Any head of state must, in these conditions, call on the parliamentary groups to create a coalition capable of obtaining the confidence of the Assembly,” explains Dominique Rousseau, for whom the president is “in his role”.

But by proposing the contours of the future coalition, articulating it around the "republican front" against the RN and seeming to exclude La France insoumise in the name of "clear and shared republican values", is he going too far in his prerogatives?

“Deprived of legitimacy after Sunday's vote, the president must be removed from his strict constitutional prerogatives. He can encourage the parties to talk to each other, but in no case is it up to him to determine the majority that must emerge,” regrets Jean-Philippe Derosier.

At this stage, the New Popular Front is struggling to agree on a Prime Minister to submit to the president. What will the latter's response be if the left proposes a name?