Activity: new construction emergency
Thus, after recalibration of the models of State services, the number of housing starts falls to 351.000 housing units in 2020, i.e. 10.000 less than the long-term average and a level equivalent to that of the onset of crisis. from the beginning of the 1990s. Compared to the number of households, it is even at the height of this crisis that we must compare! And the developments at the end of January are not reassuring, with permits still down 9% year-on-year over three months, after -15% in 2020. Without a powerful and rapid recovery, the bar of 300.000 homes started will most likely be lowered to running 2021-2022.
The shock turns out to be even more violent for new non-residential buildings. The surfaces started drop 16% in 2020. And the fall has little reason to slow down, since the authorized surfaces are displayed at -19% in 2020 and still at -16% year-on-year over three months at the end of January 2021 The year 2021 is therefore likely to turn out to be the worst ever observed since 1986 in terms of areas started. All the more so since all the non-residential segments are participating in this movement, including public procurement.
Conversely, improvement-maintenance raises its head. The 2020 balance sheet does not quite reveal it for the whole, since in the sense of invoicing, the activity of the fourth quarter is still down by 2% over one year, excluding the price effect. However, we can observe it in the evolution of energy renovation, which appears stable over the same period. In fact, the release of MaPrimeRénov 'in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the building component of “France relaunch”, almost exclusively devoted to energy renovation, are starting to have their effects.
Obviously welcome, they will not be enough to compensate for the violent fall of the new.
Employment: the threat is becoming clearer
Employment is resisting in the construction industry, with 2.900 jobs lost in total in 2020, or 0,2%, only in temporary work. However, with 44.000 fewer housing units started in 2021 and a ratio of 1,6 jobs mobilized throughout the sector per housing unit built, 70.000 jobs will be very weak by 2022, given production delays. Taking into account the fall of new non-residential, around 100.000 jobs will be threatened.
The dynamic of energy renovation will make it possible to attenuate the shock, not to prevent it. Especially since some of the structural work trades will struggle to find bridges to those of renovation and the implementation of RE2020 on January 1, 2022 risks constituting a second groundswell for them.
Businesses: beware of the cost drift
Although later than anticipated, the shock of the pandemic has been clearly evident in costs since the end of 2020. Once stocks are exhausted, the disorganization of the productive sectors and international transport leads to sharp increases in the prices of materials. First observed in steel and copper products, then in construction lumber and other non-ferrous metals, the movement has more recently gained in plastics, polyurethane and polystyrene. It is no longer rare to receive advertisements at + 30%, or even more, on building products. Fears are now moving towards more technical equipment, equipped with electronic chips or other silicon components.
For certain wood, PVC or polyurethane products, this is compounded by supply difficulties, and therefore construction work.
However, it is clear that most contracts remain signed at a firm price, cannot be discounted or revised, and provide for late payment penalties. These sites therefore risk systematically turning out to be a loss.
The building holds, but we must help it continue
Despite the violent 15% drop in activity in 2020, the building is holding up. Thanks to powerful public support measures quickly decided on and a successful deconfinement, jobs have been preserved and companies have survived the shock. This made it possible, at the macroeconomic level, to compensate for the dropout of other sectors.
To allow the building to continue on this path. To allow this, it would first of all be necessary to remove the blockages and support the contractors. As such, the FFB calls on local communities, so that the issuance of permits is frankly accelerated. In the same vein, it reiterates its proposal to set up a “declarative permit” for any operation carried out under a planning permit or in a concerted development zone.
It also warns of the risk that the Climate and Resilience Law will lead to a land policy focused on the sole objective of combating "land artificialization", with poorly mastered outlines, without taking into account the socioeconomic needs in the targeted territories.
A powerful and rapid relaunch of new buildings also requires supporting demand, which the crisis is weakening. The new Action Housing-State-USH commitment protocol in favor of social housing is a good omen. But it would be advisable to go further to allow a real resumption of first-time buyers, weakened today by a too uncertain future, but also by the recommendations - soon of a regulatory nature - of the High Financial Stability Council (HCSF). . To this end, the FFB proposes the establishment of a tax credit on the first five loan annuities of first-time buyers. As for the rental investment, the FFB reiterates its wish to see a temporary increase in the “Pinel” tax reduction.
In addition, in order not to hinder the completion of operations, the FFB continues to campaign for the rapid announcement of financial support to cover the additional costs associated with RE2020.
Finally, to allow the sector to hold out, it is necessary to ensure that the additional costs related to materials are shared from manufacturers to the end customer. The FFB is therefore asking that the ordinances which, in the spring of 2020, temporarily frozen late payment penalties be reactivated for a few months and that the government strongly communicate in favor of market indexation.
Prevention week
100% digital, Prevention Week is based on a program of forty health - prevention à la carte webinars. It will be available for a full week, from March 29 to April 2. The objectives are to raise awareness and inform business leaders, their employees, apprentices and temporary workers on occupational risks in the construction industry and the means to protect themselves from them. Five themes will be addressed:
- work at height ;
- road risk;
- dust and chemical risk;
- health / safety reception on site and at the workplace; *
- manual handling and musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs).
Innovation colloquium
The FFB is organizing on April 13 from 16 p.m. to 17 p.m., a virtual event dedicated to innovation, broadcast live from Station F on the FFB's YouTube channel.
This event will be structured around round tables devoted to innovation seen through the prisms of ecological transition, digital transformation and the development of new construction methods. It will include concrete testimonials on subjects such as green concrete and new bio-based materials, artificial intelligence and connected objects, industrialization and new construction processes.
The opportunity to break with preconceived ideas and prove that the building innovates, whether in terms of services provided to users, digital transformation, ecological transition, organization or evolution of construction materials and processes.