Enedis publishes its first report on the challenges of transforming the public electricity distribution network by 2050

It shares its vision of the transformations and long-term investments that would be necessary to adapt the public electricity distribution network according to different scenarios. Through this first prospective report, Enedis wishes to complete the various analyzes already carried out in this regard, with an innovative and territorial approach.

The public electricity distribution network, 95% managed by Enedis in mainland France, is an essential link in the ecological transition as close as possible to the territories. It already makes it possible to connect nearly 90% of new wind and photovoltaic renewable energies (RE) to the electricity grid, to participate in the electrification of uses and to aggregate production and consumption data.

The four scenarios selected for this report drawn up by Enedis correspond to possible and coherent futures making it possible to anticipate the changes to which the electricity distribution network would have to adapt:

• "Stagnation": economic stagnation and slowed down ecological transition
• "Continuity": steady economic growth and pursuit of the trajectories defined by the Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE)
• "Transition": steady economic growth, predominant photovoltaic production and chosen sobriety
• "Rupture": strong growth of the economy, population and decentralized electricity production, 100% renewable energy.

The 4 scenarios are based on more or less strong economic growth assumptions, combined with more or less advanced energy transition assumptions, in particular with regard to photovoltaic production sites connected to the electricity grid. Concretely, this involves associating basic trends observed for several years (demography, energy efficiency, etc.) with new elements that will develop in the decades to come (clean mobility, renewable energies, etc.), all at the level of each territory (districts, municipalities, departments, regions).

Because each territory is different, Enedis took local data into account for this study whenever possible: demography, housing, economic activity, meteorology, etc. This approach makes it possible to give results both at the national level and at targeted local scales, the detailed analysis of consumption, production and their prospective evolution being enabled by the territorial anchoring of Enedis, as well as its dimension. national.

The main conclusions of the Enedis report:

The growth in electricity consumption at the terminals of the distribution network remains moderate: between 0,3% and 1,2% per year by 2050

• At the national level, energy efficiency gains would offset the marked increase in the use of electricity. The growth in consumption at the terminals of the distribution network therefore remains moderate between 0,3% and 1,2% per year by 2050, below the levels known since the beginning of the century.
• At the local level, the contrasts observed today between territories should persist. The highest levels of consumption will be associated with the most densely populated areas: Ile-de-France, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts and metropolitan areas.

Solar and wind production will increasingly be the source of peak demand on the public electricity distribution network.

• The development of renewable energies connected to the distribution network will be the primary factor for change.
• The scenarios were constructed to cover a wide range of development of renewable energies connected to the distribution network: from 100 to nearly 300 GW by 2050. The quantity of solar installations, in particular small installations connected in low voltage (230/400 V) is the most differentiating parameter of these scenarios.

The sizing of the electricity network will increasingly be based on local production

• Depending on the time of day, the weather or the seasons, the production generated in each territory will be either lower or higher than its own consumption: local optimizations between production and consumption will develop.
• The territories are and will be interdependent in terms of electricity and the transport and distribution networks will continue to ensure the balance of the system at all times, adapting their infrastructures to these new needs.

The development of seasonal storage devices is essential in scenarios where solar and wind production becomes predominant

• Given the intermittence of photovoltaic and wind technologies, the development of seasonal storage will be necessary in certain scenarios.
• The diversification of means offering flexibility for controlling the electricity system and optimizing the distribution network will gain in importance. The use of batteries for this purpose will increase.

The investments necessary for the integration of the new installations on the public electricity distribution network will increase according to the local share of wind and solar production.

• Today, Enedis invests around 2 billion euros in investments per year on connections and associated network extensions. The company has anticipated this need until 2035 in line with the objectives of the Pluriannual Energy Programming (PPE).
• Depending on the scenarios studied, the new installations or extensions of the public distribution network could translate by 2050 into annual investment rates between 2 billion euros per year and 6 to 8 billion in the Outage scenario, i.e. 3 to 4 times higher than the current rate. These investments do not cover all of Enedis' industrial challenges.

Certain themes will have to be studied in depth, since the diversity of local situations of the public distribution network must be taken into account to ensure the balance of the electricity system, guaranteeing security of supply in all circumstances.

Dominique Lagarde, Strategy Director of Enedis, said:“This report makes it possible to identify the long-term priorities for Enedis: investing to enable consumers to be supplied by production connected to the distribution network; promote the economic optimizations made possible by local installations. "

Christian de Boissieu, Chairman of the Stakeholder Council * of Enedis, added: “Enedis is delivering today its first reflections on the field of possibilities for the next 30 years. By virtue of its in-depth knowledge of the territories, the company provides an additional reading grid that feeds into the major debates on the fundamental transformations facing the French electricity system today. This report is a first step for Enedis, which we will support in its analyzes, with the objective of studying the technological and societal challenges of the various scenarios outlined. "

* Created in 2015, the Enedis Stakeholder Council meets three times a year with the aim of discussing the company's strategy. Enedis thus benefits from the expertise of recognized external figures with complementary skills: economists, climatologists, representatives of the world of education and business, corporate sociologists, town planners, prospectivists.