Employment remains in the green in the third quarter

According to the final estimate published Wednesday by INSEE, the workforce in the private sector increased, with 30.700 net job creations (+36.700 with public employment). Private salaried employment is thus 5,8% above its level before the health crisis, at the end of 2019, or just under 1,2 million additional jobs.

Compared to the provisional estimate published at the beginning of November, which reported 17.700 job losses, these results are revised upwards by 48.400 jobs, with a percentage increased by 0,2 points, the Institute indicated.

The first evaluation is carried out at a time when not all companies have made their social declarations, and "the estimate can be a little more delicate at times when the situation is changing a little like now", he said. explained to AFP Yves Jauneau, head of the synthesis and economic situation of the labor market division at INSEE.

These results were immediately welcomed on to create jobs.

Meeting in Matignon

“This is an encouraging signal of the merits of our reforms to make work ever easier for our fellow citizens. Full employment! We continue,” he added.

The executive is closely monitoring the job market, while the latest unemployment rate figures in mid-November have raised doubts about the possibility of achieving the objective set by the head of state Emmanuel Macron of have an unemployment rate of around 5% in 2027. INSEE reported a slight increase in the third quarter, to 7,4% of the active population in France (excluding Mayotte), compared to 7,2 in the second quarter .

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne also invited her Ministers of the Economy Bruno Le Maire and of Labor on December 4 to discuss full employment and the means to achieve it.

She asked them for “new proposals” because “to go from 7 to 5% unemployment, we must continue to transform the country,” said those around her.

It is a question of "questioning existing systems" which include, among others, conventional ruptures or training.

If employment is finally in the green in the third quarter, the increase remains "relatively limited", notes Yves Jauneau.

“Slowdown” confirmed

For certain sectors, salaried employment is decreasing, particularly in temporary work (-2,1%, or -16.300 jobs) or construction (-0,3%), detailed the INSEE expert.

Conversely, certain sectors are "resisting" such as industry (+0,4%) or the commercial tertiary sector (+0,1%), with an increase in commerce and especially in accommodation and catering which can explain “the upward revision of this quarter”.

However, "these results do not seem to show a recovery or rebound in employment. It is rather confirmation of a slowdown, even if certain sectors are doing well", indicates Mr. Jauneau. He recalls for comparison that “in 2021 we were rather at +0,8% each quarter and in 2022 at +0,3%”.

“This does not call into question our general forecast diagnosis from mid-October” in the latest INSEE economic note, which predicted “a slowdown until the end of 2023”.

On the unemployment side, the Institute, which must make new forecasts in December until mid-2024, had forecast a slight increase in the second half of the year to 7,3%. The OFCE said for its part in mid-October to expect an increase to 7,9% at the end of 2024, while the Banque de France predicted in mid-September that the rate would reach 7,8% in 2025.

Fourth quarter results are expected in mid-February.