Electricity in 2050: Ademe publishes several scenarios, with and without nuclear power

Faced with global warming, electricity will occupy an increasing place, to decarbonize transport, building, etc.: it should go from 27% of the final energy consumed today, to 42-56% by the middle of the century, estimates the establishment in this prospective work "Transition(s) 2050".

To fuel the presidential debate and shed light on future energy choices, four social scenarios aiming for carbon neutrality have been developed. Inspired by the models of the IPCC (the UN climate experts), they range from the most sober (S1) to "business as usual" (S4, unchanged habits).

But ultimately, faced with the need to get out of fossil fuels, all four will be based, at more than 70%, on renewable energies, photovoltaic and onshore wind power first.

S1 provides for an exit from nuclear power, with the only maintenance in 2050 of the Flamanville reactor under construction. The S2, with strong local governance, generalized sharing economy, etc., sees renewable energies develop and the historical nuclear fleet is gradually reduced.

The central scenario (S3) suggests, to limit the pressure on soils and landscapes, two more options: six EPR2 nuclear reactors, or wind power at sea, in particular floating, a technology that is not yet mature. According to Ademe, their economic and CO2 benefits are close, and the nuclear option is slightly less expensive.

Finally, the S4 includes nuclear and floating wind power.

According to Ademe, overall, the full cost of electricity production in EUR/MWh should remain "relatively close" in 2050 to the level of 2020.

However, it does not include investments outside the electricity system (for example energy renovations, more or less extensive depending on the assumptions). It is in the S2 scenario that the cost of electricity is the lowest in 2050 (-12% compared to 2020), because with efficiency and sobriety, the more moderate demand makes it possible to rely on more competitive technologies (photovoltaic, onshore wind).

Finally, Ademe looked into the needs for metals and materials.

It thus anticipates "negligible consumption for concrete, steel and glass", but increased needs for aluminum and copper for vehicles.