Economic outlook for 2024: a majority of new housing manufacturers remain worried about the future

The year 2022 was marked by high inflation. This resulted in a significant gap between the value and volume of sales from New Home Manufacturers to DIY Supermarkets. After a peak of 18 points difference in the 3rd quarter of 2022, it was reduced from the 4th quarter of 2022 to 8 points to gradually reach 4 points in the 2nd quarter of 2023. The evolution of the consumer price index (INSEE) followed the same trend in the DIY market: a sharp increase in prices in 2022 which seems to ease at the start of 2023 (5% in Q2 2023).

On the margin side, they seem to be getting closer to the pre-crisis level thanks to the price increases that manufacturers were able to negotiate in 2022 to curb the rise in raw material costs, without being able to pass them on in their entirety, which has weighed heavily on industrial margins in 2022.

If it is true that the prices of natural gas and several raw materials (steel, aluminum, copper, iron, tropical wood, etc.) have fallen in 2023, it is also fair to remember, at a time when open commercial negotiations, that certain charges have increased for manufacturers in 2023: electricity, salaries, commercial leases, the price of road transport (+4,4%) as well as the cost of services (change of +6,4 .XNUMX% of the Syntec index).

Thus, according to the General Directorate of Enterprises, the sale prices of electricity to professional customers are expected to increase by +84% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Concerning salaries, the Banque de France expects an increase of +5,5% in remuneration in 2023. As for the commercial rent index (ILC), it is up by +6,7% in the 1st quarter of 2023 according to INSEE after already +6,3% in the previous quarter.

Finally, we must not forget that eco-contributions will most certainly increase, for some considerably like those for buildings, even if INOHA is working with eco-organizations to limit the increases as much as possible.

In this context, even if the activity of New Habitat Industrialists has improved over the first 8 months of 2023, a large majority of them (more than 70% of respondents) remain worried about the future. . This is evidenced by the results of the survey conducted by Inoha which specify that the subjects which concern its members the most for 2024 mainly relate to the drop in activity for 76,3%, the cost of energy for 46,1%, the increase in salaries (39,5%) and recruitment (35,5%). Thus, issues related to human resources are progressing in contrast to concerns related to the cost of raw materials.

For Jean-Luc Guéry, President of Inoha: « In this context of housing and confidence crisis as well as the need to maintain margins, it is the responsibility of our sector to work together and quickly on new commercial dynamics. »

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.