Despite the general depression, a recovery is still in sight this summer according to the government

This may seem paradoxical, as the health crisis seems to drag on, between a number of daily Covid-19 contaminations which has struggled to fall below the 20.000 mark since January and the progression of the English variant which poses the threat of a new confinement.

Faced with this gloomy atmosphere, marked by calls for disobedience from restaurateurs or local elected officials, the government displays unfailing optimism.

Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire praised Monday "the exceptional resilience of the French economy" in 2020, thanks to which 360.000 jobs were lost, half as much as expected.

"It will show at the end of 2021 its immense rebound capacity", predicted on Europe 1 the minister, who maintains for the moment his forecast of a growth of 6%.

Just like the Banque de France, which on Tuesday confirmed its 5% growth forecast for 2021. "The French economy, which had already experienced the strongest rebound in Europe last summer, once again showed at the end of 2020 its resilience. It's encouraging for when we get out of the sanitary restrictions, "said its governor François Villeroy de Galhau in an interview with the daily Ebra group.

The government is basing its optimism on the economy's reaction to the end of the first lockdown, which saw growth of 18,5% in the third quarter, then in December, when businesses were allowed to reopen, causing a rebound of 23% of household consumption, after a drop of 18% in November.

"As soon as restrictions were lifted, the return of consumers and their confidence was spectacular," said the governor.

Still, a study published on Monday cast a chill. Credit insurer Euler-Hermès calculated that the European Union was five weeks behind its goal of vaccinating 70% of the population by the summer. However, "if this delay is not compensated, it could cost nearly 90 billion euros to the European economy in 2021", he warned.

"Take a step back"

The chief economist of Bercy, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, however called to "take a step back" vis-à-vis the vaccination figures given "day by day". "Normally, in the summer, the vaccination will have been massive", assured the chief economist of the Treasury, who compares the Covid to a "cover" compressing activity.

"When you remove the cover, the economy redeploys very quickly," illustrated Ms. Bénassy-Quéré, who said she was "surprised" by the "strength" of consumption observed after each easing.

As if the French, whose income was generally preserved by partial unemployment compensation, were only waiting for the reopening of bars, restaurants and cultural places to spend the some 100 billion Covid savings accumulated in 2020.

The optimism of the government echoes that of the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. "2021 will be a year of recovery. The economic recovery has been delayed, but not undermined. It is obviously eagerly awaited," she said in an interview with the Journal du dimanche.

However, "we are not immune from still unknown risks", and "we will not regain the levels of economic activity before the pandemic before mid-2022", she warned.

For its part, the IMF has revised upward its global growth forecast for 2021, to 5,5%, with vaccination to help curb the pandemic which has killed more than 2,3 million people.

And if Germany, France's largest trading partner, has lowered its annual forecast from 4,4% to 3%, due to the expected drop in GDP in the first quarter, Berlin is counting on a recovery in economic activity to the summer, thanks to the "vaccination of a large part of the population".

In Israel, where 40% of the population is vaccinated, the third confinement began to be lifted on Sunday, as a foretaste of what awaits Europe.