The convalescence promises to be still long for the French economy

After the first lockdown, economists and the government were surprised by a stronger than expected recovery in the economy. But the second wave of autumn and the danger of a third have dampened hopes. And this despite the prospect of an upcoming deployment of vaccines.

The government had to revise its growth forecast for 2021 downwards to + 6%. Achievable performance "if there is no third confinement and if we have a relatively regular economic recovery from the 1st quarter", warns Patrick Artus, chief economist of Natixis.

Otherwise, "everything will be different: that will mean that it will be necessary to wait until 2024 to regain the level of GDP before the crisis, unemployment will rise much higher, business bankruptcies too", he adds.

Beyond the figures, the reality looks more mixed. The crisis is expected to consolidate certain activities, such as online commerce, health and care professions, and ecological transition, a key axis of the recovery plan.

Conversely, a whole section of the economy - tourism, catering, cultural and leisure activities - remains suspended.

"There are many question marks" about the future of these sectors, underlines Patrick Artus. "Are we going back to restaurants as much as we used to? Are we going back to the plane as much as we used to? Are weekend mass tourism starting again? Nobody knows. nothing".

For now, companies are resisting, on a drip of more than 470 billion in public aid, the majority of which is in loan guarantees. And, thanks to the massive recourse to partial unemployment, they have still made few layoffs, especially eliminating fixed-term or temporary jobs.

But the worst is yet to come, even without a third wave.

"Bankruptcies will happen in 2021 and they could cause 200.000 job losses," says Bruno Ducoudré, economist of the OFCE.

The unemployment rate should already soar to 9,7% this year, according to INSEE. And next year, "the rise will be gradual," says Bruno Ducoudré, the OFCE counting on 10,6% at the end of the year.

To limit this increase, the government is betting in particular on its plan "a young person, a solution", of which it perceives "first positive signals", at the level of the use of the hiring bonus, the progression of apprenticeship contracts. and support routes for those furthest from employment.

A guarantee of resources of 900 euros per month was also decided until February for 400.000 precarious workers, who alternate employment and unemployment.

However, this may not be enough to fill all the "holes in the racket" and prevent a number of people from falling into poverty.

The departments are already seeing an increase in RSA beneficiaries - estimated at 8,5% over one year at the end of September - and food aid associations have already recorded between 10 and 25% of new registrants for their campaign this winter.

Recovery and reforms

Faced with these risks, the "whatever the cost" promised by Emmanuel Macron remains relevant, with 20 billion euros of emergency spending added at the last minute in the draft budget for 2021.

"It is not time to lift the measures to support the economy", pleaded the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, even if the aid - and in particular the solidarity fund dedicated to small businesses - will now be targeted at the sectors most affected by the crisis.

For those who are better, the executive is counting on the recovery plan of 100 billion euros over two years to take over in 2021 and boost the recovery.

But most economists question its effectiveness in the short term, when it is mainly focused on supporting investment in sectors of the future and lowering production taxes for companies.

It is in this climate of uncertainties, just over a year from the next presidential election, that the executive wants to resume its plans for unemployment insurance and pension reforms, despite the dissonances within it. on the method and timing.

It is a question of respecting the presidential promises, but the stake is also financial, with a debt which has exploded to 120% of the GDP this year and which will rise again next year, and the eye of Brussels which could be made less accommodating as the crisis recedes.