The episode of acceleration and catching up, at work for a few months, therefore seems to be coming to an end, the production rhythms in June-July falling behind with regard to 2020 (which was marked, it is true, by a phase of sharp rebound after the first containment), but also compared to 2019. However, demand indicators remain positive at the end of summer: on the Building side, order books remain at a high point while, on the Public Works side, companies have returned to a certain optimism about their business prospects. However, certain points call for vigilance: the difficulties of supplying materials (mainly imported) affect the smooth running of the sites and weigh on production costs while some construction sectors (such as non-residential) are still struggling to divide.
Decline in volumes during the summer
According to the first results of monthly surveys, the production of aggregates fell by -2,9% between June and July 2021, leaving the volume down -3,3% compared to 2020 and -2,2% compared to 2019 (CVS-CJO data). During the last 3 months, activity has decreased by -3,7% compared to the previous quarter but still remains higher by + 4% compared to the same period of 2020.
However, it shows a contraction if we refer to 2019 (-1,8%). Cumulatively over the last twelve rolling months, the aggregates activity certainly shows an increase of + 10,4% but it is stable with regard to the same period in 2019. This observation also applies to the cumulative over the first seven months of 2021 which aligns with that of the same period of 2019 (+ 0,2%). On the BPE side, the month of July also marked a slowdown in trends with air volumes down -3,3% compared to June and -9% and -4,1% compared to those of 2020 and 2019 respectively.
During the last known quarter, ready-mixed concrete deliveries fell by -5,3% compared to February-March-April but remain a little above those recorded over the same period of 2020 (+ 0,8%) . However, they are slightly below those of 2019 (-0,7%). If the last twelve months show a shift of + 14,2% over one year, they are a little below those of 2019 (-0,8%), just like the cumulative over the last seven months of 2021 which is registered a decrease of -1% compared to the same period of 2019 (against + 21,8% compared to 2020).
The Materials indicator, for its part, confirms this same deceleration in trends. After a strong increase in the first half (+ 25% compared to 2020), the growth in activity over the first seven months of the year came back to + 19,5%, i.e. an increase of + 2,8% compared to for the same period of 2019 (provisional data, CJO).
Building: optimism against a backdrop of tensions
Optimism remains in order among the construction industry. Interviewed in August by INSEE, professionals remained very confident about their future activity, their opinion on past activity decreasing a little but remaining well above the long-term average. The rebound in the balance of opinions of entrepreneurs on their future workforce testifies to the good direction of the activity while their order books, which they consider still well filled, show more than 10 months of activity in the structural work. given their numbers, a new high point.
At the same time, professionals in this sector underline strong tensions on the productive apparatus: more than two-thirds of them experience recruitment difficulties and nearly 57% cannot increase their activity. Finally, even if the share of construction companies facing supply difficulties fell a little in August (12,9% against a peak of 14,3% in July), it is at a very high level in compared to the long-term average (1,7%).
On the construction side, housing starts fell over the three months from May to July (-5,5% quarter-on-quarter, CVS-CJO) whereas they had rebounded the previous three months (+8,5, 4,8%). This decline, which affects both individuals and groups alike, however leaves the overall quarterly trend at + 10,8% over one year with a clear lead for the pure individual segment (+ 0,9% against -386% for the collective ). Over the last twelve months, there have been 300 housing units started, an increase of + 8,2% over one year but down -1% compared to the same period of 2019.
Side permits, the trend remains upward with an increase of + 2,8% over the last three months compared to the previous three months, the collective posting a rebound of + 5%. Compared to last year, the trend (+ 41,8%) is necessarily flattering, the confinement effect requires, but it remains very positive if we refer to 2019 with an increase in permits of + 4,2%. Thus, cumulatively over the last twelve months, at the end of July, there were 445 authorizations, i.e. a level + 100% higher than that of 10,8 and barely lower than that of 2020 (-2019%). This observation is closely linked to the dynamics of the individual segment, whose cumulative permits over the last six months have jumped by + 1% compared to the same period in 17!
This trend could continue in the second half of the year if we are to believe the increase in order intake recorded by manufacturers. It is true that the sector is benefiting from the strong enthusiasm for single-family homes, in the post-health crisis period, as well as financing conditions that have never been so attractive, despite the inflationary pressures weighing on real estate. and construction costs.
Moreover, according to the latest survey conducted by INSEE in July among developers, they are rather confident about the demand for new housing and are slightly more likely than in April to predict an increase in housing starts. of housing (both for sale and for rental). According to the promoters, the personal contribution of the candidates for the acquisition tends to increase and the means of financing devoted to the purchase should increase in the coming months; on the other hand, they also signal an increase in the average price of goods.
TP: more confident companies
According to the quarterly survey conducted by the FNTP at the end of July, business leaders were much more optimistic than in April, also highlighting a clear improvement in their past activity.
This improvement concerns both private and public customers and, for the third consecutive quarter, the balance of opinions on order books is recovering, now standing above its long-term average; among the obstacles limiting the execution of works, labor constraints are now on the heels of the lack of demand (33% and 34% respectively).
Like construction, public works have to cope with price increases for certain materials (steel and plastic products in particular) and recruitment difficulties.