Ranking of cities according to their DPE and unequal effect of this rating on real estate prices in France

• In France, the prices of thermal strainers (DPE FG) are on average discounted by 18,4% for apartments and 33,9% for houses compared to green homes (DPE AB)
• One in 11 colanders on sale in France, during the first quarter of 2024, was Parisian. Paris is once again an exception with 29,3% of properties for sale having a DPE FG, up slightly compared to Q4 2023 (29,2%).
• Between January and March 2024, Lille (-9,0%), Metz (-6,0%) and Toulouse (-5,4%) recorded a significant drop in the expected prices of apartments in DPE FG, compared to the 4th quarter of 2023, while Parisian prices appear to be stabilizing (-0,4%).
• Paris, Le Havre and Montreuil are the only cities whose stock of thermal strainers represents more than 20% of the goods put up for sale over the period.

What is the breakdown by DPE rating of properties put up for sale over the period?

While the Energy Performance Diagnosis (EPD) is establishing itself as an increasingly central purchasing criterion, the third edition of La Vigie de GoFlint carries out an inventory of cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants according to the distribution of scores DPE AB, FG and EFG of goods for sale. Three major observations stand out:

Properties for sale in the 40 largest cities are distributed as follows according to their DPE rating:

• DPE AB: 7,5%
• DPE CDE: 78,9% with goods to DPE CE representing together 58,8% of the total
• DPE FG: 13,6%

Paris, Le Havre and Montreuil are the only cities whose stock of thermal strainers represents more than 20% of the total put up for sale over the period. The total for Paris rises to more than 63% by adding properties with a DPE E rating, far ahead of Le Havre in second position (with almost 54%), illustrating the energy-intensive nature of the Parisian housing stock, 49% of which predates 1948 and only 3% after 2006[1].

Conversely, Aix-en-Provence, Montpellier and Nîmes top the list of cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants with the highest proportion of green homes put up for sale, reflecting a more recent housing stock than that of the capital.

Ranking of cities according to the distribution of properties for sale according to the DPE AB, FG and EFG ratings (cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants)

The most expensive thermal colanders are in Ile-de-France

The 5 cities whose expected price of thermal strainers decreased the most in the first quarter of 2024 are Lille (-9.0%), Metz (-6,0%), Toulouse (-5,4%), followed by Angers and Aix-en-Provence (-5,2% each).

Paris, Boulogne-Billancourt and Montreuil dominate the ranking of cities with the highest priced thermal strainers. Conversely, it is Saint-Etienne, Mulhouse and Limoges which display the lowest prices for goods with DPE FG.

On average, a Parisian apartment in the DPE FG has an expected price 164% higher than the price of a French apartment in the DPE FG.

Ranking of cities according to the price of apartments in DPE FG (cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants)

A clear and illustrated reduction in the prices of thermal strainers in France

If on a national scale, prices in old goods fell by 1,8% over one year[2], it should be noted that this drop is greater for thermal strainers. In this context, this third edition of La Vigie de GoFlint wanted to deepen the consideration of the DPE in the real estate price according to the type of property and the number of rooms and by illustrating the differences between Paris and the rest of France.

As such, thermal strainers (DPE FG) record average discounts of 18,4% for apartments and 33,9% for houses compared to green homes (DPE AB).

These national figures should be related to the specificity of Paris. With one thermal strainer out of 11 put on sale between January and March 2024, the French capital remains the leading reservoir of properties classified F and G.

With 29,3% of properties for sale in Paris having a DPE FG (and 63,1% considering properties with DPE EF-G) buyers of Parisian apartments (notably T1/T2/T3) are only moderately able to reflect the DPE rating in the price of the property. Unlike the rest of France where the discount according to the DPE note is visible whatever the number of rooms (although more marked for T4 and T5).

For apartments the overall discount is 18,4% between a property with DPE FG and a property with DPE AB.

For houses, the DPE rating of the property strongly affects the expected prices, confirming a high level of correlation between DPE and valuation. For houses the overall discount is 33,9% between a property with DPE FG and a property with DPE AB.

La Vigie offers a graphic illustration of these discounts by type of property and parts:

Price per m2 of apartments according to the DPE note (with and without Paris) in the first quarter of 2024

Price per m2 of houses according to the DPE note (with and without Paris) in the first half of 2024

A slowdown in new supply put up for sale in the first quarter and a jump in E-rated properties

To go further, GoFlint wanted to compare the structure of the sample by DPE rating with the previous edition of La Vigie and notes the fall in new stock for sale as well as the sustained progression of DPE CDE (+7,8% stock over 90 days) as well as to a lesser extent that of thermal strainers on sale (DPE FG).

For Mihai GAVRILOIU, co-CEO and co-founder of GoFlint: “We explain the slowdown on AB DPEs largely by the drop in production of new ones in France. The number of thermal strainers on sale is also increasing even if some professionals see a modest waiting effect linked to the entry into force in July of the DPE reform for small surfaces. On the other hand, we note sustained growth in sales of properties with a DPE E (+6,4% over Q1 2024 / +12.562 units) reflecting, in our opinion, the placing on the market of properties whose owners anticipate regulatory tightening after having been able to observe the negative effect on prices of the categorization into “thermal sieves” of goods at the DPE FG. »

GoFlint joins a second partner in La Vigie

In addition to Casafari, GoFlint has partnered with the French start-up Concrete AM, a player specializing in digital data processing and financial modeling. The arrival of Concrete AM will accelerate the development of GoFlint's statistical models in order to enrich the processing and extension of the spectrum of data analyzed by La Vigie.

Methodology :

Sample for the period from January 1 to March 31, 2024.

Data reviewed:

• 888.594 unique properties in mainland France and Corsica
• Collected by Casfari from 1.160 sources publicly available on the Internet and the GoFlint.fr portal

Price estimates included agency fees (“FAI”) but excluding registration fees and potential negotiation margin on the basis of the “median price” analyzed from the last prices published before publication of the advertisements Average sales duration calculated according to the methodology used by Casafari for a more exhaustive representation of the real time spent by a good since its first marketing.

[1] ADIL from Paris

[2] Source: French notaries Top 5 Apartments FAI Price Ranking Variation 90 days