Catastrophic real estate situation in Ile-de-France at the end of November 2023 with a decline in sales of 30%

Sales volumes: a market still waiting

Even more significant, sales volumes are down 25% compared to the average over the last 10 years.

The market remains stuck at a very low level of activity. This is not surprising because household solvency remains very poor, despite some encouraging signals from banks and price reductions that are now widespread, but insufficient to compensate for the increase in property loan rates.

Some major trends observed over several quarters persist, beyond the sharp and generalized decline in activity.

Thus, sales volumes fell a little more for houses (-32% in one year) than for apartments (-29%). At the same time, the drop in activity in Paris (-27%) remains slightly less severe than in the rest of the region.

Finally, the house market in the inner suburbs remains the most impacted (-35% in one year).

The fall in prices intensifies in a movement expected to continue in the coming months

In Ile-de-France over one year, from November 2022 to November 2023, housing prices decreased by 6,8% with a comparable decline for apartments (6,7%) and houses (7%).

Price declines tend to intensify recently. In Ile-de-France over 3 months, from August to November 2023, housing prices decreased by 2,8%. After correcting for seasonal variation, the quarterly drop in prices remains high (-2,5%).

In Paris, the price of old apartments would increase from €9/m² in November 870 (-2023% in one year) to €6,7/m² in March 9, according to our leading indicators on pre-contracts. The annual drop in prices would deepen further and increase to 520% from March 2024 to March 7,7.

In the coming months, price adjustments should be slightly more marked in the inner suburbs than in the outer suburbs. This is true for both apartments and houses.

According to our advanced indicators on pre-contracts, we expect an annual decline in apartment prices of 8,7% in the inner suburbs and 7,2% in the outer suburbs. House prices should see their prices fall by 9,1% in the inner suburbs and 7,3% in the outer suburbs.