Cyberattacks, including data breaches, are the most concerning risks for large, medium and small businesses in 2025 (38% of responses).
Business interruption remains in 2nd place (31%). Natural disasters are in 3rd place, while climate change, which is closely related to them, sees the largest increase compared to 2024, moving from 7th to 5th place.
Geopolitical unrest, the impact of changing governments and regulations, and fears of trade wars also remain among the top concerns for businesses.
In France, political risks and violence climb to 4th place, a new high. Market developments (8th), insolvency (9th) and environmental risks (10th) make their debut in the ranking.
The Allianz Risk Barometer also explores risks across 24 key industries. Cyber Incidents are the #1 risk for 8 industries (aviation, technology, telecoms, chemicals, entertainment, financial services, media and professional services). Business Interruptions are ranked as the top risk by 10 industries (transportation & logistics, consumer goods, food & beverage, hospitality/leisure & tourism, automotive, oil & gas, energy & utilities, renewables and heavy industries). Natural disasters top the rankings for construction and shipping.
Business interruption, once again a major concern for companies of all sizes, ranks 2nd. Natural disasters, which again marked the year, remain in 3rd place. Finally, changes in legislation and regulation rank 4th, due to the impact of numerous elections around the world, rising geopolitical tensions and the risk of trade wars. The risk that has seen the largest annual increase in the Allianz Risk Barometer, based on responses from more than 3.700 risk management professionals from over 100 countries, is climate change, which rose from 7th to 5th place, reaching its highest level in 14 years of research.
All companies, large, medium and small, consider cyber incidents to be the number one risk. However, there are notable differences across the rest of the rankings. Small companies are more concerned about localized and immediate risks, such as regulatory compliance, macroeconomic developments and workforce shortages. However, some risks that were already a concern for large companies are clearly starting to worry SMEs as well. Climate change, for example, and political risk and violence are moving up the rankings.
For Vanessa Maxwell, Chief Underwriting Officer of Allianz Commercial: “2024 has been an unprecedented year for risk management. The annual results of the Allianz Risk Barometer reflect the uncertainty that many companies around the world are facing today. In particular, they show the interconnectedness of key risks. Climate change, emerging technologies, regulation and geopolitical risks are increasingly intertwined, creating a complex chain of cause and effect. Companies must take a holistic approach to risk management and constantly strive to improve their resilience to address these rapidly evolving risks.”
10 main risks in France
In France, the top 3 risks are the same as at the global level: Cyber Incidents followed by Business Interruptions and Natural Disasters. French companies also consider Political Risks to be very worrying since they have moved up to 4th position (6th in 2024). They are also increasingly concerned about Market Developments, Insolvency and Environmental Risks, which have entered the Top 10.
Cyber risks continue to rise with rapid development of technology
For the fourth consecutive year, cyber incidents (38% of respondents) top the global ranking, but by a wider margin than ever before (7 percentage points). They are the No. 1 risk in 20 countries, including Argentina, France, Germany, India, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. Data breaches are the most feared cyber risk for businesses, for more than 60% of respondents. This is followed by attacks on critical infrastructure and physical assets (57%).
Cyber incidents are now ranked No. 1 by those in aviation, chemicals and entertainment. They are also considered the most concerning risk in the financial services, media, professional services including legal, technology and telecommunications sectors.
For Rishi Baviskar, Global Director of Cyber Risk Advisory at Allianz Commercial: “For many companies, cyber risk, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), far outweighs all others. It is likely to remain a major risk in the future, given the increasing reliance on technology. In the summer of 2024, the CrowdStrike outage demonstrated, once again, the need for secure and independent IT systems.”
Business interruption, closely linked to other risks
Business interruption has ranked #1 or #2 in the Allianz Risk Barometer for a decade. In 2025, it remains in #2, with 31% of responses. Business interruption is typically the result of events such as natural disasters, cyberattacks or IT outages, insolvencies, or political risks such as conflict or civil unrest, all of which negatively impact business operations. Several developments in 2024 explain why businesses continue to view it as a major economic risk. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea disrupted supply chains, with container ships diverted. Incidents such as the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore also directly impacted global and local supply chains. These disruptions with international repercussions occur at a frequency of 1,4 years, but the trend is increasing, according to an analysis carried out by Circular Republic, in collaboration with Allianz and others. They cause significant economic damage, representing between 5% and 10% of production costs and additional costs related to stoppages.
Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Advisory Services at Allianz Commercial, said: “The demand for technological advancements and cost-effectiveness is impacting the resilience of supply chains. Automation and digitalisation have dramatically accelerated processes, sometimes outpacing people, given the pace and complexity of these new technologies. However, when implemented effectively, they can also enhance resilience, by improving data analytics, foresight and response capabilities. This makes it essential for all businesses to invest in resilience.”
Climate change at its highest level
The year 2024 is expected to be the hottest on record. It has also been marked by terrible natural disasters: hurricanes and extreme storms in North America, devastating floods in Europe and Asia, droughts in Africa and South America. After falling back in the rankings during the pandemic years, when businesses had to deal with more immediate challenges, climate change climbs two spots to #5 in 2025, an all-time high. Natural disasters, which are closely related, remain in #3 at 29%. However, more respondents rank them as #1 year-over-year. For the fifth consecutive time, insured losses exceed $100 billion.
Geopolitics and protectionism still in the crosshairs
Despite ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty in the Middle East, Ukraine and South-East Asia, political risks and violence have dropped one place to 9th year-on-year, but with the same proportion of respondents as in 2024 (14%). However, they are up from last year in several countries, including France, Italy and the UK, where they rank in the top five risks. They are of greatest concern to large companies (7th place), but are also, for the first time, a concern for small businesses (10th place).
Fears of trade wars and protectionism are growing. An analysis by Allianz and others shows that export restrictions on critical raw materials have increased fivefold over the past decade. While tariffs and protectionism are top of the agenda for the new US administration, the regulatory “Wild West,” particularly around AI and cryptocurrencies, also poses a risk. In Europe, sustainability reporting requirements will be on the agenda in 2025.
For Ludovic Subran, investment director and chief economist at Allianz: "The effect of new customs duties will be roughly the same as that of over-regulation: higher costs for all companies affected. No regulation is 'bad' in itself. More often than not, it is the implementation of the rules that complicates life for companies. The focus should be on simplifying the rules, but also on administrative efficiency, with the aim of making it as easy as possible to apply the regulations. The adoption of all-digital administration is an urgent necessity. Unfortunately, in 2025, we will probably still be waiting in vain for a digital strategy in this area. Rather, trade wars are looming. The outlook is not encouraging."