Building permits fall, the new construction crisis continues

At the end of March, according to data revealed on Friday by the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the number of new housing permits issued in one year fell by 11,5%, to 441.400.

A steady decline since August, when this number had reached a record (525.300) under the effect of regulatory deadlines.

This time, it is mainly single-family homes that are pulling the total down. A possible calendar effect, many permit applications submitted in December 2021 for houses having been validated at the start of 2022, but also the fact of a more serious trend: the objective of zero net artificialisation of the soil discourages the construction of houses, more conducive to urban sprawl.

The number of construction sites started, which traditionally follows that of building permits, fell by 8,3% over one year to 359.200.

The causes are known: in the wake of the war in Ukraine, construction costs have skyrocketed for developers and builders.

At the same time, the rapid rise in interest rates has limited buyers' access to credit.

Some professionals therefore choose to freeze or abandon projects, judging them to be too unprofitable.

"Disaster"

A situation that weighs heavily on the activity of promoters, and arouses increasingly alarmist comments in the community.

“The predicted disaster has arrived”, commented for AFP the president of the French Building Federation (FFB), Olivier Salleron.

"If we continue with the same parameters, we are heading towards a disaster", also judged Loïc Cantin, president of the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim). "What demonstrates the urgency to react is that when the machine stops, it takes time to restart. And the construction economy does not recover like that," he says.

The housing world is growing impatient with the government, accused at best of a wait-and-see attitude, at worst of inaction in the face of the crisis.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced a future extension beyond 2023 of the zero-rate loan, which allows buyers under certain conditions to borrow to finance the purchase of their main residence.

"We are working to find out how it will be maintained", assured BFM Business the Minister Delegate for the City and Housing, Olivier Klein, in favor of "greening it".

The government will also work with the Caisse des dépôts et consignations (CDC) to relaunch sites that have been put on hold.

"If a project is completely blocked but it has an interest in getting out of the ground, we will work with the Caisse (...) so that we can relaunch this building activity", promised the minister.

"An Urgent Rebound"

On May 9, Olivier Klein must announce the measures he is taking from the proposals of the housing section of the National Council for Refoundation (CNR), a series of consultations wanted by Emmanuel Macron.

The President of the Republic will then arbitrate, in turn, between the proposals selected for each thematic section.

"We need an urgent rebound, all the known, well-known measures, which today are in a situation of blockage or analysis at government level, they must come out during this CNR Housing", said said Olivier Salleron.

According to calculations by the FFB, in the absence of measures, 100.000 jobs are threatened by the end of 2024.

"I have no illusions about the outcome of the proposals that are transmitted", for his part decided Loïc Cantin. "If they are like the interviews that took place, I do not expect major innovations. One more consultation to justify having wanted to hear the actors."