Budgets: Socialists rule out censorship, Bayrou draws his first 49.3

"No country can live without a budget and France less than any other," argued the Prime Minister in the chamber, committing his government to responsibility for the 2025 budget project.

The government hopes to use this text to reduce the public deficit to 5,4% of GDP in 2025, in particular with new, temporary revenues from the wealthiest households and the profits of large companies, but also with cuts in the spending of several ministries.

A budget built on "slightly optimistic" growth hypotheses, with "few safety margins", estimated the High Council of Public Finances.

The Insoumis responded as expected to the use of article 49.3 of the Constitution which allows the adoption of a text without a vote. They filed a motion of censure, which will however have no chance of succeeding without the socialist votes.

This should be debated and put to a vote on Wednesday. Its rejection would lead to the adoption of the 2025 budget in the Assembly, before a final adoption without suspense on Thursday in the Senate.

Two months after the fall of the Barnier government, François Bayrou thus seems assured of remaining at Matignon for the moment, even if the RN decides to censure, with Marine Le Pen's group due to decide on Wednesday.

"Right-wing budget"

"The 2025 finance bill remains a right-wing budget," the PS group said in a statement, citing the "spirit of responsibility" and "the country's interest" to "not censor the government at a time when France is waiting to have a budget."

At the end of this budgetary procedure, the PS will, however, file a spontaneous motion of censure (article 49.2) in reaction to François Bayrou's remarks on the "feeling of submersion" of migration. But several participants in the national office consider that it has "no chance" of collecting the votes of the RN and bringing down the government.

"The New Popular Front has been reduced by one party," replied the leader of La France Insoumise Jean-Luc Mélenchon after the PS's decision not to censure the budget, accentuating doubts about the future of the left-wing alliance.

LFI chairman of the Finance Committee Eric Coquerel castigated a budget that was "even more austere" than that of Michel Barnier, launching an appeal to the PS: "if the RN votes for the motion of censure", it would be enough for "20-25" socialists to support it.

But, according to the PS group, all of its deputies will follow the decision of the National Bureau, for the State budget and that of Social Security. An important decision since François Bayrou quickly drew a second 49.3 on Monday, on a part of this second text, which had caused the fall of Michel Barnier in December.

A very rare situation: the last Prime Minister to have invoked Article 49.3 several times on the same day was Michel Rocard, almost 35 years ago, according to the Assembly website.

More 49.3 expected

"It is an obligation for us to have a text that allows the actors to have a clear roadmap," justified the Prime Minister by once again engaging the responsibility of the government. LFI responded with a second motion of censure.

The Minister of Labor and Health, Catherine Vautrin, defended "a first step" in restoring the accounts, estimating that the Social Security deficit will be "greater than 22 billion euros" in 2025.

"The text that we are going to adopt does not resolve any of the structural problems of our public accounts and our social accounts," warned the general rapporteur Thibault Bazin, elected member of the right-wing party Les Républicains (LR).

"Never in 15 years have the social security accounts seen such a level of deficit, with the exception of 2020, the year the pandemic peaked," added the chairman of the Social Affairs Committee, Frédéric Valletoux (Horizons).

François Bayrou could still resort to Article 49.3 twice this week on other parts of this Social Security budget project, hoping for subsequent adoption in accordance with the Senate around February 17-18.