Barometer of rental tension in the main French cities

Île-de-France: A new hierarchy of rental tensions

Île-de-France remains a region with high rental pressure, but the map of the cities in greatest demand has been redrawn. Noisy-le-Sec, a suburban town, is now ahead of Paris with a tension score of 10, compared to 8 for the capital. This surge is fueled by a growing demand for young workers on permanent contracts (who represent 76% of candidates compared to 67% last year), the majority of whom are on average 31 years old. This dynamic reflects a search for more affordable and better connected housing in the outskirts, while Paris sees its attractiveness decline slightly due to high rents.

The cities of the Paris suburbs show similar developments, each influenced by specific factors:

• Up to 50 candidates per advertisement in Hauts de Seine: In Hauts-de-Seine, we observe an overall increasing tension, with a very high number of candidates per advertisement in certain towns such as Clichy with a score of 8 and which has 50 candidates per ad or Colombes (score of 7) which has 34 candidates per ad. For comparison, Paris has 33,5.
• Voltage increasing and flow decreasing in Seine-Saint-Denis: The tension is increasing, but the flow per batch is decreasing in Seine-Saint-Denis. If cities like Pantin (score increasing from 7 to 9) see their tension increase, others like Saint-Denis see it decrease. This can partly be explained by a development of the offer within the framework of Greater Paris and the Olympic Games, reducing the tension a little. For example, in the first part of 2024 Saint-Denis saw its number of announcements increase by 30%.
• Val-de-Marne must face competition: In Val-de-Marne, rental tension scores remain high, particularly in Créteil which displays a score of 8. However, we observe a decrease of 18% in number of candidates per advertisement in this city compared to 2023. Other cities such as Ivry and Vitry are also experiencing a significant drop in their flow of candidates per advertisement, leading to a reduction in rental tension. The tension score now reaches 6 in these areas, compared to 8 for Ivry and 7 for Vitry in the first quarter. This phenomenon could reflect an adaptation of the real estate market, with some areas becoming less attractive while others are gaining popularity.

We also note an arrival at the top of the Argenteuil ranking. The town of Val d'Oise, on the border of Hauts-de-Seine, saw its score go from 8 in the first quarter of 2024 to 9 in the second quarter. This trend may be due to the impact of an increasingly tight market with rents continuing to increase, making the capital and its inner suburbs less and less accessible for students and young workers. It will be interesting to follow if this trend is confirmed in the coming quarters.

A decline in attractiveness in the City of Lights? -43% of candidates per advertisement in the second quarter of 2024

The city of Paris, once the undisputed leader in rental tension, sees its situation relax slightly with a score going from 9 in the first quarter to 8. The number of candidates per advertisement decreased by 43% compared to the second quarter of 2023, a trend can be explained in particular by the drop in student demand in the capital. We noted 46% of student applications this quarter compared to 52% in the second quarter of 2023. This could be attributed to several factors. First, the growing attractiveness of peripheral towns, better served by public transport and offering more affordable rents, is attracting more and more tenants. Then, the rise in rents in the capital, exacerbated by the approach of the Olympic Games, may deter certain candidates. It will be crucial to monitor this development in the coming quarters to understand whether this trend is confirmed.

Opportunities in the provinces: contrasting markets

Outside of Île-de-France, the province presents contrasting trends, offering both challenges and opportunities for tenants as well as investors.

For investors: Cities like Toulouse and Caen are showing promise with rental tension slightly above average, but above all with an increasing number of applications per advertisement. Owners will therefore have less difficulty finding a tenant for their property.

For tenants: With a tension of 3 and less than 5 applications per advertisement Nancy, Le Mans and Saint-Etienne represent attractive choices for those seeking to avoid the intense competition of large markets.

Tenant profile: a relatively young market

Overall, the rental market remains dominated by young people, particularly those under 25 and 25-34 years old. The first and fourth quarters are periods of high activity for 25-34 year olds, often linked to changes in employment and location.

This term, however, there has been a slight decrease in the proportion of under-25s, perhaps linked to a reduction in the number of students looking for accommodation.

Conclusion

The Manda barometer for the second quarter of 2024 reveals a rapidly evolving rental market, characterized by a redistribution of tensions in Île-de-France and the emergence of opportunities in the provinces. The dynamics observed highlight the importance of understanding current trends to better anticipate future developments. For tenants and investors, this barometer offers perspectives in a constantly changing market. It will be essential to monitor these trends over the coming quarters to adjust strategies accordingly and make the most of available opportunities.

Methodology

This study is based on a combination of internal Manda data and external sources. The number of applications per batch (or “applications per advertisement”) and the publication time of advertisements are the main indicators of rental tension. The shorter the publication time and the higher the number of applications, the more tense the market is considered with a score ranging from 1 to 10, with 10 representing a very tense area.

The number of candidates per batch is based on Manda data, bringing together 2600 advertisements published between the second quarter of 2023 (1.100 advertisements) and second quarter of 2024 (1.500 advertisements). The median publication time of an ad is based on external data bringing together more than 38.500 ads between the second quarter of 2023 and second quarter of 2024.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.