-45% of sales for the year 2020
According to CAPEM *, 15.300 new housing units were launched in 2020 by real estate developers in the Ile-de-France region, with 13.500 standard apartments, 1.300 serviced residences and 500 houses. Compared to 2019, listings are down 45%. For the classic collective, the drop is even more drastic with -49% of sales.
“If we look at building permit authorizations, we have had a steady decline for 3 years. In 2020, we produced 22.000 fewer homes than in 2017. Looking at what's in front of us, it's even worse. "analysis Marc VILLAND, president of the Federation of real estate developers of Île-de-France.
For more than a year, the act of building has been stigmatized and for the first year, developers in the Ile-de-France region have on average as many refusals of building permits as they have obtained.
“It is regrettable because we are not the enemies of the ecological transition, quite the contrary. Our sector has worked a lot on itself, particularly on environmental issues with RT2012, which is one of the most efficient regulations in Europe ” Marc VILLAND alert
The offer is in free fall in Île-de-France
According to CAPEM, only 17.300 housing units are available at the end of 2020, with 15.800 standard apartments, 1.100 serviced residences and 400 houses. The total supply has fallen by 25% over one year (-28% for the classic collective).
According to the current pace of sales, it would take less than 10 months to sell the entire stock of new homes in Île-de-France.
For Marc VILLAND, “We are creating the shock of the shortage of supply. This will have repercussions on the price of land and housing, it will destabilize some of the Ile-de-France residents. The act of building has the particularity of involving multiple actors, the State, Local Authorities, architects, construction companies, developers, but the private sector must not be constantly questioned. For example, bringing nature into the city is a long-term issue that requires the implementation of digital technologies and questioning our mode of governance and its territorial fragmentation ”.
-44% of sales over the year 2020, rental investment suffers the most
According to CAPEM, Ile-de-France developers sold 21.000 housing units in 2020 (compared to 38.000 in 2019) all types of housing combined: 19.500 classic collective lots, 600 serviced residences and 900 houses
Rental investment has seen its sharpest drop since the implementation of the PINEL system with 8.000 lots sold in 2020 (-48% compared to 2019). Homeownership sales volume also fell 42% in 2020
“The demand remains high but is exerted on a lesser choice. The withdrawal rate is increasing, linked to more difficult bank financing ”adds Marc VILLAND, president of the Federation of real estate developers of Île-de-France.
The production of social housing struggles
In 2017, Ile-de-France developers produced 10.000 social housing units representing 1/3 of the social housing units approved by the State in Île-de-France. This production fell to 6.500 social housing units produced in 2020.
“There is an obvious correlation between the crisis in real estate development in Ile-de-France and the drop in the production of social housing. To produce social housing and achieve the objectives set by the State, you have to be able to build! Gender diversity has become one of the essential intervention criteria for Ile-de-France promoters ” concludes Marc VILLAND, President of the FPI IDF.
* Center for Real Estate Analysis and Forecasting, FPI IDF Observatory