After COP26, the hope of respecting the limit on global warming to 1,5 ° C is fading

This is the mixed observation of the Committee on Regional Planning and Sustainable Development in a investigation report extending the Senate resolution devoted to climate negotiations, adopted on November 2, 2021.

The COP26 allowed a slight increase in the climate ambition (-0,3 ° C), mainly thanks to the submission of contributions determined at the national level (CDN), new or updated. Insufficient, this advance in ambition will not however make it possible to respect the objectives of the Paris Agreement: the short-term commitments would at best place the planet on a trajectory of temperature increase of 2,3 ° C, far from the target of 1,5 ° C. In addition, the ability and willingness of States to respect their own NDC will be decisive in achieving this, which is far from being guaranteed despite the adoption of transparency rules.

On the other hand, steps forward in terms of governance should be underlined: agreement on transparency rules - which should make it possible to better compare the contributions of each State and to monitor the reality and effectiveness of the actions undertaken - and acceleration of the climate agenda, by asking States to review and strengthen their NDCs from COP27 in 2022 - likely to amplify the collective ambition from next year.

The committee identifies a very real cause for concern linked to insufficient progress in climate finance. On the one hand, the efforts of developed countries to finance mitigation and adaptation to climate change by 2020, in developing countries, have not lived up to the commitment of 100 billion dollars. per year taken in 2009. On the other hand, the COP26 did not make it possible to find financing solutions for “loss and damage”. Without a rapid response from the international community to these issues, the crisis of confidence between developed and developing countries could take root even further and permanently paralyze climate negotiations. The lack of solidarity from developed countries could also strengthen the alliance between developing countries and “large emerging countries” (China, India), an alliance which helps to limit general ambition. The committee therefore calls on France and the European Union to move forward on this aspect of the climate negotiation in view of the COP27.