After a collapse in 2020, the office market expects a very difficult year 2021

"For 2021, we will not expect a return to normal," said AFP Virginie Houzé, of the real estate firm JLL, which participates in the benchmark report on the sector, published Friday.

For now, the office market has collapsed in 2020, according to this report says Immostat, which focuses on the Paris region, which is the bulk of the French sector.

The quantity of rented offices there fell by almost half (-45%) to 1,32 million square meters. As a result, the number of vacant offices has jumped by more than a third.

Like many economic sectors, real estate has suffered the effects of the crisis, with activity notably blocked in the spring by strict confinement decreed against the spread of the virus.

The fact remains that the office depression contrasts with the resistance of the housing market, at least old. For the latter, visits had rebounded strongly in the summer, even if the consequences of the more relaxed reconfinement at the end of 2020 remain to be fully assessed.

Compared to housing, offices are generally subject to heavier operations and their attractiveness more directly reflects the economic situation.

"It is a context which is uncertain and pushes companies to wait and see what happens," admits Ms. Houzé, stressing that the health crisis is set to continue.

Prime Minister Jean Castex evokes a way out of the crisis by the summer, against a backdrop of criticism of the slowness of vaccination in France and the spread of a much more contagious variant of the virus, coming from the United Kingdom. United.

For offices, "we can hope that activity is released a little in the second half of the year if the news is positive," says Ms. Houzé.

However, the virus risks having consequences well beyond this caution, ultimately classic in times of economic crisis before activity resumes.

The lockdowns and, more generally, the health situation have forced companies to make employees work remotely.

Less investment

"In France, we are a country where, traditionally, we are not big supporters of teleworking, and the spring confinement has freed things up", observes Ms. Houzé. "It will probably have a long term impact."

An emblematic operation symbolizes this trend. For its future headquarters, ordered from the developer Nexity, the energy giant Engie was planning a gigantic set of six buildings.

But he changed his mind at the last moment and the buildings will only be four.

This is, according to the group, the direct consequence of the rise of teleworking: "this resizing is linked to changes in working methods," Engie told AFP in December.

There are, of course, few observers to predict a massive generalization of remote work, which would result in a collapse of the office market.

But many companies could generalize one or two days of teleworking per week and, therefore, need a little less space.

Faced with these uncertainties, the office market did not only experience a drop in rentals last year. It has also attracted much less investors who buy these spaces and then rent them.

"The uncertainty related to new ways of working, as well as the lack of economic prospects have led to a certain wait-and-see attitude from investors," remarked in a press release Nicolas Verdillon, expert at CBRE, another contributor to the balance sheet.

Last year, 26,3 billion euros were invested in commercial real estate - throughout France and not only the Paris region - a decline of 36%.

"Note (...) this year, the decline of foreign investors and particularly Asian investors", underlines in a press release the real estate subsidiary of BNP Paribas, member of Immostat.