After a 6,9% drop in construction in 2020, the future looks difficult for housing in France

There is less and less new housing in France, while the crisis makes them particularly necessary. The state denounces the blockages of some mayors, but the sector accuses it in turn of considering too strict rules to defend the environment.

"We can clearly see that there is a lack of supply in new housing, which already existed with the crisis and is currently increasing", summarizes economist Olivier Eluère, a specialist in real estate at AFP. Agricultural credit.

Published Thursday, official government figures confirm this finding. Last year, 376.700 dwellings were started, a decline of 6,9%.

This decline is relatively limited, but it only reflects the immediate effects of the Covid-19 health crisis and the containments put in place against the spread of the virus, in particular in spring 2020.

Marked by very severe restrictions and uncertainties on the authorized activities, the first containment blocked many sites, the time to put in place health security measures. But the sector then caught up some of its delay.

Finally, "the decline is a little less strong than what one could fear", notes Mr. Eluère, stressing that the sector suffers much less than other parts of the economy weighed down by the crisis.

The future looks difficult for housing in the longer term. Indicator of future development, the number of building permits fell 14,7% to 381.600 authorized housing units.

This means that the decline in housing creation risks further accentuating this year even as the economic crisis reinforces the urgency of a sufficient supply of housing.

A lasting decline in new housing would be of concern beyond this single economic sector. A sufficient supply of housing promotes a market where prices do not soar, which in turn is a crucial issue for an economy emerging from the crisis.

Why this persistent decline in permits? Beyond the blockages linked to the crisis, the housing sector regularly evokes the timidity of many local elected officials to authorize housing.

"Dogmatic" mayors

The government, already faced since the start of Emmanuel Macron's five-year term with a mixed situation in terms of new housing, therefore does not fail to refer the responsibility to certain mayors in the face of whom it has toughened its words in recent weeks.

"Some mayors are very dogmatic and say + I stop everything + as in Bordeaux, Lyon or Marseille", declared the Minister of Housing, Emmanuelle Wargon, on Radio Immo in mid-January.

"We must (...) put them face to face with their contradictions", she continued. "Stopping everything is not for the benefit of their inhabitants."

The large cities cited by Ms. Wargon have one thing in common: they elected last year new mayors who are environmentalists or, as in Marseille, have the support of environmentalists.

Housing professionals are worried about the consequences of an environmentalist discourse unfavorable to "concreting", especially since it is widely taken up by elected officials from other political parties, including on the right.

But the sector is also targeting the government's attitude: while it has set up a financial incentive for mayors to authorize more housing, it has also recently announced new rules to limit the effects of construction on the environment.

This “2020 environmental regulation” (RE 2020) provides for the ban on gas heating, for example.

It is considered too strict by the sector, which ensures that it will further restrict the creation of housing by making them more expensive.

A large panel of organizations, which range from the HLM world to building federations through developers, again this week called for the postponement of its entry into force, scheduled for this summer.

"The current rate of construction is not enough to meet housing needs", insisted in a joint statement these organizations which estimate that one could "fall permanently to 300.000 housing starts annually under the effect of these constraints" .