Salaried employment is expected to remain almost stable in the fourth quarter of 2025, but will decline among young people.

Over the quarter, salaried employment fell slightly more in the public sector (-0,3%) than in the private sector (-0,1%), according to INSEE on Friday.

While the decline is minimal in the private sector, this is the fifth consecutive quarter of decline in this sector, following a period of strong growth after the health crisis in 2020-2021.

Overall, salaried employment is 0,2% below its level of a year earlier (i.e. -45.900 jobs) but "still clearly exceeds its level before the health crisis, at the end of 2019", indicates the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.

According to the Ministry of Labour, this "development reflects more of a phase of adjustment and normalization than a reversal in the labour market". It describes a "phase of diffuse but moderate slowdown, without a generalized contraction in employment".

"Engine failure"

"It's reassuring because it's resilient, but it's not encouraging either," says Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING bank. These figures "show that the French economy is a bit sluggish," she analyzes, adding that this could last.

The INSEE also confirmed that the increase in France's GDP growth rate was set at 0,9% in 2025.

Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the OFCE's Analysis and Forecasting department, sees this as "sluggish growth", "insufficient to create jobs, especially at a time when employment policies are no longer supportive", while the French economy created a huge number of jobs between the end of 2020 and the end of 2024.

"For businesses, uncertainty continues to exist, even if we have a budget, the climate on national economic policy is complicated," he points out.

In the last quarter of 2025, salaried employment declined particularly in construction (-0,4%) and non-market services (-0,3%), with -13.500 jobs in education and -11.300 in public administration.

Temporary employment, often considered a leading indicator of labor market trends, is declining slightly (-0,2%).

While permanent and fixed-term contracts remained stable or nearly stable, apprenticeship contracts fell by 0,8% over the quarter and by 4,2% over the year (-38.100 jobs). This decline in apprenticeships, against a backdrop of reduced public funding, particularly for apprentices in higher education, along with other factors, led to a decrease in salaried employment for young people aged 15 to 29, down 0,3%.

On the other hand, salaried employment of those aged 55 and over continues to grow: +0,6% over the quarter, +2,4% over a year.

In the fourth quarter, the unemployment rate reached 7,9%, its highest level since the third quarter of 2021. The increase was particularly marked among young people, with the unemployment rate for 15-24 year olds climbing to 21,5%.

"The youth unemployment rate will remain a point of attention in the coming months because when you have a sluggish job market, young people are the ones who suffer the most," emphasizes Charlotte de Montpellier.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.