
Initiated by Michel Barnier in October, rejected by the National Assembly at first reading, suspended after the censure of the former Prime Minister and finally taken up by François Bayrou, this draft finance law (PLF) has had a chaotic journey through Parliament...
Even if it was another budget text, the Social Security budget, which precipitated the fall of the Barnier government, there is no guarantee that the opposition will let this draft finance law (PLF) pass without batting an eyelid, quite the contrary.
Crucial for the State, which is currently operating at a slow pace under the exceptional regime of a special law passed at the end of the year, this budget represents an almost insoluble equation for the executive, deprived of an absolute majority in the National Assembly but ordered by Brussels to straighten out public finances.
"It is an extremely difficult exercise, very demanding, but it is obligatory. A France without a budget is a France at a standstill and which is also increasing its deficit," government spokesperson Sophie Primas insisted on Wednesday, judging it "imperative" that the text be promulgated before the end of February.
Bercy is aiming for an effort of 32 billion in savings and 21 billion in revenue to bring the public deficit down to 5,4% of GDP in 2025, compared to a level of 6,1% expected for 2024.
recovery
To achieve its goals, the government can count on a generally benevolent Senate. Dominated by a right-wing-centrist alliance that supports it and also favours a logic of reducing expenditure, the upper house should adopt the budget project very largely.
"This budget begins the effort to redress the accounts. We are in a situation of extreme urgency and it is time to become aware of it, without sacrificing our convictions or aligning our red lines", summarizes the general budget rapporteur Jean-François Husson (LR), who is leading the budget debates at the Luxembourg Palace.
For the government, the situation is likely to become more complicated later, with the convening on January 30 of a joint committee (CMP), a meeting of seven senators and seven deputies responsible for arriving at a compromise text.
If they succeed, the common version will have to pass the filter of the National Assembly in the week of February 3 for a final vote, or a possible return of 49.3, undoubtedly followed by a new motion of censure.
After convincing the socialists not to censor him on his general policy statement, François Bayrou hopes to extend this draft agreement on his budget, with renunciations such as the elimination of 4.000 teaching posts and the move to three days of waiting in the civil service, as well as the renegotiation of the 2023 pension reform.
But the account is still not there for the socialists, who will vote against the budget on Thursday like the whole of the left.
"Shifting the lines"
"The CMP will be the arbiter. Between now and January 30, there is the possibility of moving the lines. The budget will not be good, we know that, but we hope that it will be as good as possible," the president of the PS senators, Patrick Kanner, told AFP, calling for further progress.
Censorship or non-censorship? Within the New Popular Front, the Insoumis raised their voices against the socialists on Wednesday: if they repeated their choice not to censor, the PS deputies would "break definitively" with the NFP, according to LFI.
It would still be necessary for the Bayrou-PS agreements to appear in the budget...
And the right will not let them pass so easily: during the night, the LR rejected most of the concessions made to the socialists, refusing the restoration of 4.000 teaching posts, 500 posts for France Travail, and the creation of 924 posts for the Ministry of Justice. This could nevertheless be reintegrated into the CMP.
Another sign of tension in the final stretch of the budget review is the government's presentation of multiple additional "cuts" proposed at the last minute in almost all ministries.
Some 800 million euros in development aid, more than a billion in housing and ecology, 600 million in research and higher education and a highly symbolic reduction in the sports budget in the post-Olympic year... So many savings that have infuriated the PS.