Unemployment Insurance, in the red in 2026, wants to limit the government's levy on its accounts

These levies will reach 4,1 billion euros in 2026. "Next year, instead of running a deficit of 1,3 billion, we would have had a surplus of 2,7 billion if the State had not levied on our revenues," stressed Jean-Eudes Tesson (Medef) president of Unédic during a press conference.

These increased levies were planned. But a new method of calculating social security contributions for self-employed workers, which relies less on the CSG (General Social Contribution) and will reduce Unédic's revenue by €800 million next year, was not.

"We didn't see it coming," said Mr. Tesson.

The levies and lower revenues are slowing down Unédic's debt reduction trajectory and forcing the organization, which was already in surplus before levies, to take out new loans at much higher rates than during the health crisis.

So much so that the Unédic office, which met on Wednesday morning, wrote to the government to request "a review of the State levy".

But in the midst of a budget debate where the government is seeking to spend less, the president of Unédic does not think the request has much chance of success.

"We're not dreaming, but we tell ourselves that it's our duty to attract attention and do everything we can to get satisfaction. Things being what they are, we don't have much hope, even if we think our request is perfectly legitimate," explained Jean-Eudes Tesson.

The unemployment insurance management body explains that since 2023, these state levies have reduced "by 13 billion euros Unédic's capacity to repay" its debt, which is expected to reach 59,5 billion at the end of 2025, then 60,8 billion at the end of 2026.

The interest burden on this debt will more than double between 2022 and 2027 to reach 1,7% of the regime's revenue, according to forecasts.

Weakened shock absorber

To calculate its financial trajectory, Unédic is basing its calculations on macroeconomic forecasts from a consensus of economists who anticipate GDP growth of 0,7% this year and 0,9% next year. Employment levels are expected to remain stable next year, following the expected net job losses of 60.000 this year.

"Faced with a deteriorating economic situation and in an uncertain political context, the system is under financial pressure: the first repayments of the 'Covid debt' will begin in 2026," also notes the unemployment insurance, which had financed partial activity and emergency measures to the tune of 19 billion euros during the pandemic, as well as extensions of compensation for beneficiaries at the end of their rights for 2,5 billion.

"Today we are starting to repay the Covid debt, but because of state levies, we are in permanent debt, in deficit, we also have to borrow at a much higher cost," warned Unédic Vice-President Patricia Ferrand (CFDT).

"This situation weakens the role of unemployment insurance as a social and economic buffer, at a time when the job market is contracting," the organization laments.

Will the government seek to make savings on unemployment insurance by asking social partners to negotiate a new agreement, in particular by questioning the compensation obtained after a mutual termination?

The framework document sent by former Prime Minister François Bayrou this summer to the social partners remains on the table for the time being, the request for annulment submitted to the Council of State in September by the CFDT and FO having been rejected last week.

Without being able to say whether new negotiations will open, Jean-Eudes Tesson "does not think" that the request presented by Unédic to the government to rebalance its accounts will be "taken into account in the decision to withdraw or maintain the framework document".