Unemployment insurance: Unédic forecasts a deficit of 2,1 billion euros in 2026

For 2027 and 2028, Unédic forecasts surpluses of 2,8 billion and 4,8 billion euros, which, in the absence of new levies from the State, should allow the scheme to resume its "debt reduction trajectory", the joint body stated in a press release.

In 2026, Unédic will be subject to a levy of 4,1 billion euros from the State. Without this levy, the projected balance of the accounts would have been positive by 2 billion euros this year.

The financial situation is also more difficult due to the "start of the repayment of the Covid debt", said the president of Unédic, Patricia Ferrand, during a press conference.

"In a context of gloomy economic prospects, the State's levies on the scheme's revenues mechanically worsen its financial situation: debt reduction has been at a standstill since 2023," notes Unédic in its press release.

"It is becoming crucial for us that the state levies cease," stressed Patricia Ferrand.

"Despite the deterioration of the job market, the number of job seekers receiving benefits would remain contained, due to the unemployment insurance reforms implemented since 2021. There would be approximately 2,6 million unemployed receiving benefits in 2026 and 2027, then 2,5 million in 2028," the organization anticipates.

Unédic specifies that the effects of the agreement reached last week on lower compensation for unemployed people who have entered into a mutual termination agreement are not taken into account in these forecasts.

This measure, which will still have to go before parliament once signed by employers' and trade union organizations, would save 20 million euros in the first year of its application, probably in 2027, 270 million in the second, 760 in the third and 940 from the fifth onwards, in cruising mode.