Towards a new equilibrium for the real estate market in 2026?

Did 2025 mark the entry of the real estate market into a new equilibrium?

On the activity side, the number of transactions reached approximately 929.000 sales over the twelve months ending October 2025[1], representing an 11% year-on-year increase. This remains below the expected pace in a liquid market (~1 million transactions), but the momentum is clearly stronger than last year. Regarding prices, changes remain moderate but positive year-on-year across all market segments. All annual changes in the Real Estate Price Index (RPI) are above 1%, a stark contrast to the situation observed a year earlier, when prices were predominantly trending downwards. This restrained growth is largely explained by a less favorable interest rate trajectory than anticipated, particularly in the spring of 2025, which dampened price momentum. The market now appears to be settling into a new pattern: small but sustained increases. The trend is similar in major cities. Almost all of the top 10 cities are showing positive growth, although the increases remain limited. Among the major cities, only Nice truly stands out, while Toulouse, Bordeaux, Marseille, and Montpellier are experiencing more modest increases. Nice distinguishes itself with a significantly sharper rise, exceeding 5% year-on-year, whereas most major cities are seeing increases closer to 1% to 3%. Conversely, Nantes remains an exception, with prices still falling, but at a much slower pace than last year.

In the rental market, the situation is improving slightly in terms of rents. Their increase has slowed considerably, to around 1,3% year-on-year, compared to nearly 3% a year earlier. This slowdown is mainly due to some households returning to the home-buying market after being forced to remain renters. However, the pressure on the rental market remains very high, particularly in high-demand areas.

In Paris, for example, the number of properties available for rent remains 30% to 40% below its pre-health crisis level.

Finally, on the credit front, 2025 was marked by a change of trajectory. After the declines that began in early 2024, rates stabilized from spring 2025. As of December 1, 2025, they were around 3,5% for 25-year loans and 3,4% for 20-year loans[2].

This level contrasts sharply with the expectations at the beginning of the year, when a return below 3% was anticipated for the summer. This disappointment led to a period of discouragement in the spring. However, the second half of 2025 marks a clear turning point: the observed dynamics deviate from the usual seasonal pattern, with a more pronounced recovery in activity. This rebound reflects a gradual acceptance of the new credit conditions. Demand has thus recovered and is now returning to levels close to those of 2021, a strong signal that households have integrated this new market reality.

What are the expectations for 2026, particularly regarding credit rates and market developments?

On the banking side, competition is expected to intensify at the start of the year. Credit production targets are starting from scratch, with renewed ambitions.

This could translate into some downward rate adjustments, but these should remain marginal. The most likely scenario remains a generally stable interest rate environment around 3,5%, barring a major macroeconomic shock.

This caution stems from a still fragile environment. Ten-year bond yields remain high, reflecting persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, political instability, and structural budgetary challenges that maintain a high risk premium on French debt. Monetary policy, meanwhile, remains very measured: no cuts to key interest rates have occurred since June 2025, and markets anticipate stability in 2026, in a context of generally controlled inflation close to target.

In the real estate market, economic fundamentals also argue for a scenario of continuity.

Inflation is contained, growth is expected to remain weak but slightly better than in 2025, wages continue to rise, at a moderate pace but above inflation, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively stable, according to the macroeconomic projections of the Bank of France.

Above all, households now seem better equipped to return to the market. Demand has returned to pre-2022 levels, reflecting a genuine acceptance of the new interest rates and prices. Added to this are certain factors likely to support the market, such as changes in energy regulations: the new Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) framework could remove approximately 850.000 homes from the category of energy inefficient properties, contributing to a slight easing of the rental market.

According to Thomas Lefebvre, VP Data, SeLoger & Meilleurs Agents: "The central scenario for 2026 is one of stability, rather than a new cycle of falling interest rates."

Beyond the figures, to what extent does the political context influence the housing market today?

According to Thomas Lefebvre, VP Data, SeLoger & Meilleurs Agents: "Today, beyond financial conditions, political uncertainty is a significant factor hindering households' investment in the real estate market."

Real estate is a long-term market: buying, investing, or renovating commits households for 15, 20, or 25 years. In this context, the instability or unpredictability of the rules of the game weighs heavily on decisions, sometimes more so than the level of interest rates themselves.

France continues to face a profound housing crisis with multiple consequences: difficulties accessing housing, obstacles to residential and professional mobility, recruitment pressures in certain areas, and widening territorial inequalities. In high-demand areas, the difficulty of finding housing has become a significant economic challenge. Elsewhere, the lack of a clear vision is hindering investment and the revitalization of regions.

One positive point, however, should be highlighted: housing has once again become a central topic of public debate. The government and parliament seem to be better grasping the systemic nature of the crisis, whether it concerns housing production, private rental investment, or energy-efficient renovations.

However, this awareness has yet to translate into a clear, coherent, and stable strategy. Recent parliamentary debates sometimes give the impression of a fragmented housing policy, made up of successive, sometimes contradictory, adjustments that muddy the signals sent to households and investors.

Industry professionals are unanimous: without a stable framework for investment and housing production, the crisis cannot be resolved sustainably. Housing cannot be managed through annual measures or temporary programs.

What the market needs today is not new announcements, but a clear direction over time, allowing households, investors, and communities to plan with confidence. Until this stability is established, a wait-and-see attitude could remain strong, even in a context of gradual normalization of financial conditions.

Methodology

The SeLoger-Meilleurs Agents Barometer provides an objective framework for understanding market dynamics, anticipating changes, and making informed decisions. Updated monthly using the latest data collected from the previous month, it accurately reflects the realities of the real estate market.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.