The thermal, air-conditioning and refrigeration industry sector reaffirms the immediate potential of its equipment to achieve climate objectives

A tense year 2024 for the climate engineering equipment market

Between the 11,1% drop in housing construction starts and the 10% drop in non-residential premises, the decline in energy renovations (-41% of MaPrimeRénov' files including -50% of renovations by gesture) and the instability of public aid, the climate engineering sector has had a difficult year. These factors, combined with the fluctuation of energy costs, have slowed investments in energy renovation, putting manufacturers under pressure.

• Air/water heat pumps: In a context of rising electricity costs, these materials have suffered from an anxiety-provoking atmosphere for both individuals and project owners (inflation, debt, political situation, etc.) as well as the instability and complexity of MaPrimeRénov' aid.
• Geothermal heat pumps: This type of equipment is struggling to find its place. It continues to suffer from a lack of qualified drillers and high installation costs.
• Gas-oil boilers: With energy prices at their lowest and a possible replenishment of distributor stocks, the observed rebound remains cyclical and does not reflect a reversal of the long-term downward trend. Despite the development of green gas and the relevance of hybrid solutions, sales remain lower than past volumes and are expected to suffer from the increase in VAT in 2025.
• Biomass boilers: Despite a return to normal in the price of pellets, sales, also penalized by the reduction in aid, have collapsed for the second consecutive year. The situation is becoming alarming for specialized manufacturers in the sector.
• Solar thermal: Despite its potential for hybridization with other renewable energies, solar heat follows the general trend. Individual solar water heaters are the most impacted by the drop in sales, while combined solar systems (heating and domestic hot water) are more resilient. Collective solar hot water continues to decline.
• Water radiators: Sales of radiators remain stable in 2024 but with a downward trajectory over the last few years. Heat emitters used in all heating installations on hot water loops, radiators are suffering from both the decline in new construction and renovation. Their energy optimization potential remains underexploited in renovation.
• Air/air heat pumps: Originally chosen mainly for the comfort they provide in summer, air/air heat pumps are increasingly also used for their heating function, in new builds as well as in renovations. The unfavorable context of renovation combined with a weak summer, did not allow this segment to achieve the expected objectives. Sales for tertiary buildings contribute to limiting the decline with a less severe decline than that observed in the residential sector.
• Controlled mechanical ventilation (CMV): Sales of mechanical ventilation systems are generally satisfactory despite contrasting situations depending on the applications.

In residential, single-flow CMV in individual housing is progressing slightly but with systems that are not very efficient in renovation. The potential for energy savings linked to an upgrade with modulating, single or double-flow systems would save 40 TWh per year.

In the tertiary sector, the situation remains comparable. Despite growth in 2024, single-flow ventilation remains below the level of previous years. For these markets too, an upgrade with more efficient systems reveals an untapped potential for energy savings estimated at 23,3 Twh/year.

Outlook 2025

The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with several favorable elements and headwinds complicating the market projection. On the positive side, we note the drop in the cost of electricity in February, inflation and lower interest rates, which could stimulate demand in the coming months. The entry into force of RE2020 for tertiary buildings could have a positive impact on various markets.

Uniclima's commitments

In this difficult context, Uniclima reaffirms the immediate potential of its equipment to achieve France's climate objectives and the commitment of its members to continue their territorial anchoring and contribute to the revival of the renovation market.

Our equipment has immediate potential for energy efficiency and decarbonization

Each year, the various technologies supported by Uniclima manufacturers progress in terms of energy efficiency, decarbonization and more generally environmental impact.

Replacing the historic fleet with this new generation of equipment would make it possible to achieve considerable gains across the territory.
For example, between 80 and 110 TWh per year could be saved by installing heat pumps in residential and commercial buildings. Similarly, installing efficient ventilation systems in residential buildings could save up to €5,9 billion.

Finally, replacing standard boilers with THPE boilers in individual collective housing could save up to 5,2 TWh per year.

Our manufacturers have already migrated to technologies using more environmentally friendly refrigerants. They are continuing their efforts

The strong mobilization of our manufacturers to reduce the environmental impact of refrigerants is bearing fruit! It is by anticipating the schedule for the gradual withdrawal of various high GWP1 fluids from the European F-Gas regulation that Uniclima manufacturers have demonstrated their commitment and voluntarism on this environmental aspect.

Today, we see that:

• Air/air heat pumps: R-410A (GWP of 2088) has been completely phased out in 5 years. Sales have shifted to equipment running on R-32 (GWP of 675).
• High GWP fluids now represent only 21% of air/water heat pumps and are being phased out (R-410A and R 407C). ​​Intermediate fluids are now clearly in the majority (73% in 2024 compared to 52% in 2023) and low-impact fluids have appeared (7%).
• Application by application, manufacturers seek the best compromises between energy efficiency, environmental impact and safety.

Anchored in the region, our manufacturers remain mobilized to intensify the production of heat pumps in France

Uniclima members are already making a significant contribution to the industrialization of France, with no fewer than 87 factories throughout the country.

In 2023, the government plan “one million PACs” produced in France had been very favorably received by our manufacturers in a context of buoyant markets. Investments had been initiated to support this objective.

But the decline in markets in 2024 has resulted in freezing part of the investments. Our manufacturers need growth and visibility to plan ahead. They nevertheless remain determined to reactivate these projects as soon as conditions are favorable again.

Our manufacturers are formulating proposals to relaunch renovation

In terms of reviving energy works in buildings, the progress of which has been significantly slowed for many months, Uniclima's industrialists have developed avenues of work to restimulate renovation. These avenues are intended to be pragmatic, taking into account the reality on the ground and the essential consensus that must be reached to reduce public spending:

• Consider multi-stage renovation paths

In order not to oppose renovation by simple gesture to global renovation, allow to start with a simple gesture then to move in stages towards a global renovation.

• Simplify existing aid systems (MaPrimeRénov', Energy Savings Certificates, helping hand)

By guaranteeing the stability of the existing system in 2025 and by opening a broad consultation with the sector in order to study avenues for simplification and efficiency.

• Secure, simplify the energy renovation process, avoid fraud by setting up a digital process

Limit fraud, facilitate the triggering of aid and limit the number of checks per installation by offering suitable and secure technical solutions to installers and craftsmen.

• Mobilizing new market financial instruments dedicated to renovation to reduce the “remaining cost” of households

Through dedicated funds or specific financial instruments, create, in collaboration with public authorities and banking players, new solutions for financing the remaining costs for households.

Explicative note

The figures presented here reflect industrial sales in volume. These data are not always directly comparable to the markets for installation and maintenance, whether new or renovated.

For a large part of the products, industrial sales are addressed to distributors who themselves market the equipment locally. This scenario is the norm for all small and medium power products. These data can therefore also be influenced by storage or destocking phenomena in distribution.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.