The real estate market remains resilient despite a tense autumn

On the bank side, while some are showing discreet increases (+0,03 to +0,06 points), the movement is not widespread. In short: no explosion in rates, but a year-end that promises to be difficult due to the unstable political context.

According to Pretto data, the average rates observed in October are as follows:

• 3,19% over 15 years
• 3,28% over 20 years
• 3,36% over 25 years

In September, the rate increase had primarily affected borrowers with modest and middle incomes, as banks had ended the discounts previously granted to them. In October, the trend reversed: these profiles returned to more stable conditions, while it was now high-income households (>€80 annually) who saw their rates increase the most (+0,10 points over 15 and 20 years). The result: a rebalancing effect between borrower categories, in a context that has remained marked by an overall upward trend since the summer.

Concretely, what does this mean for buyers? A borrower receiving 3.500 euros net monthly will see their borrowing capacity drop by 300 euros (247.300 euros in October, compared to 247.600 euros in September).

For a household with an annual income of 100,000 euros, the budget drops by almost 5.000 euros, from 605.100 euros to 600.300 euros.

For Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto: "For first-time buyers, the personal contribution remains a determining factor; in this period, even €5.000 to €10.000 can make a difference in the eyes of a bank. And for those who don't have this capacity, starting small, buying a studio or a two-room apartment, and capitalizing on it to sell later, is a realistic strategy for entering the market."

The 10-year OAT climbs to 3,55%: an unprecedented paradox

The 10-year Treasury Bond (OAT), a barometer of French debt, continues to rise and stands at 3,55%. Bad news for public finances: the government is now borrowing more than individuals.

The reason: a strong appetite among banks for mortgage loans and abundant resources at controlled costs, resulting from record levels of household savings.

For Pierre Chapon: "This is unprecedented: the level of the OAT far exceeds that of the mortgage rates offered by certain banks. A differential that reflects persistent confidence in the ability of borrowers to honor their debts, despite political and budgetary instability."

Banks cautious in an explosive political context

With a budget still frozen, an undetermined government, rising debt, and a heated debate over taxing the highest incomes, the signals sent to the markets are negative. Not to mention that, following the Fitch ratings downgrade, France's room for maneuver is shrinking even further.

For Pierre Chapon: "Regarding financing for real estate acquisition projects, the signal is not as negative! Banks continue to lend, and they are doing so under much more favorable conditions than even a year ago. Borrowing capacity has improved significantly since the 2023 crisis. For a borrower with a solid file, it is entirely possible to realize their real estate project."

Persistent regional gaps

As in September, regional disparities persist. The Île-de-France region has an average rate of 3,20% over 25 years, while the PACA region and Pays de la Loire region have an average rate of 3,40%. These differences reflect a commercial strategy that varies depending on the market.

What's Next ?

The current situation is more akin to a new normal: interest rates between 3 and 3,5%, stable property prices nationwide, and a market in which negotiations are resuming—for buyers with good profiles and financing. The economic and political decisions of the coming weeks will be decisive in understanding banking strategies regarding real estate credit.

Pretto will be there to give you useful points of reference.

What changes in October

• Gradual resumption for MaPrimeRénov'

The window reopens after a three-month shutdown, with a cap of 13.000 applications by the end of 2025. Only very low-income (and then low-income) households can initially submit an application. Aid now stands at 45% (intermediate) and 10% (higher), with caps of €30.000 to €40.000 depending on the energy savings. The 10% bonus for colanders is disappearing.

• Property tax payment deadline

In October 2025, property owners must pay their property tax: October 15 for standard payments (≤ €300) and October 20 for online payments. Above €300, only online or direct debit payments are accepted.

• VAT reduced on photovoltaic panels

From October 1, 2025, the installation of photovoltaic panels ≤ 9 kWp benefits from a reduced VAT rate of 5,5% (compared to 10% or 20% previously). A measure of the 2025 Finance Act to encourage the equipment of housing.

• New anti-fraud measures for the DPE

As of October 1, 2025, new measures will come into effect: a cap of 1.000 DPEs/year per diagnostician, increased Cofrac controls, and the introduction of an official QR code to authenticate results. The goal is to make diagnostics more reliable and protect both buyers and tenants.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.