The real estate market is expected to be balanced again by 2025, but is not yet out of the crisis.

"The good news is the recovery in transaction volume. We needed it, we went through a real storm," says Charles Marinakis, president of Century 21 France.

By the end of September 2025, 921.000 sales of existing homes had been recorded. For the full year, the French National Council of Notaries forecasts 945.000 transactions, representing an increase of approximately 12% compared to 2024.

For real estate agency networks, the recovery in sales was 11,6% at Century 21, 11% for Orpi and 16% within Laforêt.

The 2025 vintage is shaping up to be quite good, as on average between 2014 and 2024, nearly 980.000 transactions were recorded annually. Over the last twenty years, this average has been just over 867.000 sales.

As for prices per square meter, they increased by 1,6% according to the SeLoger-Meilleurs Agents barometer, by 1,4% according to Century 21, and by 1,8% for Laforêt. Charles Marinakis describes this increase as "moderate" and hopes it won't spiral out of control.

The real estate market "has returned to a form of normality with sales volumes, credit rates in a normal range and also a hierarchy of prices" between the different territories, Yann Jéhanno, president of the Laforêt France network, told AFP.

"A normal, balanced market that has self-regulated" after the shocks experienced since the Covid crisis, confirms the president of Century 21.

Rental market remains tight

For Guillaume Martinaud, president of Orpi, the reasons for this renewed momentum are "clear": "the gradual decrease in rates which has reopened access to credit, the adjustment of prices which has restored real estate purchasing power and the commitment of banks to first-time buyers".

The average interest rate on mortgage loans has indeed fallen back to around 3,1% after having exceeded 4% in 2023. Housing prices, meanwhile, had fallen by 2,1% in 2024 and by 3,9% in 2023.

Households buying their first property were the first to be affected by the rise in interest rates starting in 2022.

In 2025, "they were able to take advantage of the drop in property prices," Yann Jéhanno rejoices. Their share among Laforêt's purchasing clients increased from 30% in 2024 to 35% in 2025.

"This is a step in the right direction, but there are still first-time buyers left behind with difficulties in saving up a down payment," notes the president of Laforêt. "Before the crisis, first-time buyers represented 50% of the market."

Another cloud on the recovery is the decline in individual investors, those who buy properties to rent out. They represent a quarter of Century 21's purchasing clients, less than in 2019, before the crisis. But 1,5 times more than in 2015, according to Charles Marinakis.

The main consequence of this withdrawal of investors is that tensions on the rental market remain "very strong, particularly in tense areas", notes the SeLoger-Meilleurs Agents barometer.

"In Paris, for example, the number of properties available for rent remains 30% to 40% below its pre-health crisis level," it adds.

"As long as we do not revive rental investment," the rental market will remain tight, says Yann Jéhanno.

A tax incentive scheme for private landlords was included in the draft budget for 2026, the review of which could not be completed before December 31. The text is due to return to the National Assembly's Finance Committee on January 8 and may be subject to further amendments.

"Nothing is won yet" for real estate, summarizes Guillaume Martinaud. "The political instability and geopolitical situation we have been experiencing since September 2025 are already beginning to weigh on the market and can be seen in the year-end figures," he warns.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.