The public finance alert committee will meet on Tuesday amid economic uncertainty.

"The goal is to identify any potential problems early enough and to take corrective measures quickly," Economy Minister Roland Lescure told Le Parisien on Saturday.

This body, launched after significant slippages in the public deficit in 2023 and 2024, will bring together at Bercy parliamentarians, representatives of Social Security, trade unions or local authorities around the ministers of Economy Roland Lescure, Public Accounts David Amiel, Labour Jean-Pierre Farandou, Health Stéphanie Rist and Territorial Planning Françoise Gatel.

Last year, this structure met twice: on April 15 around former Prime Minister François Bayrou, who had warned the French about the "trap" of debt which threatens "the survival (of the) country", and on June 26 to announce an additional five billion euro cut in public spending in order to meet the target of a deficit of 5,4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025.

It finally settled at 5,1%, good news which the government welcomed at the end of March.

But the task remains arduous, as the war in the Middle East is shaking up the French economy and leading to "a significant increase in debt servicing costs", with the cost of the crisis "estimated at around 4 billion" euros, Bercy warned on Tuesday.

And uncertainty persists, as Iran closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday, after announcing its reopening on Friday for the duration of the truce with the United States.

Credit cancellation

Faced with soaring energy prices, the government this week slightly reduced its economic growth forecast to 0,9% in 2026 (compared to 1% previously forecast), and revised its inflation forecast upwards to 1,9% (compared to 1,3% previously).

However, it maintains its target of a 5% deficit this year and its commitment to bring it below 3% in 2029, as requested by Brussels.

"Credible" forecasts, according to Maxime Darmet, economist at Allianz Trade.

On Tuesday, the alert committee will take stock of the situation of public accounts, in light of these new forecasts, and will have the task of "informing the decisions to be taken", Bercy indicated this week.

Credit cancellations could be announced at this time.

According to Les Echos, they should reach "around 4 billion euros".

When contacted by AFP, Roland Lescure's office was unable to confirm or deny this amount.

David Amiel had warned at the end of March that "any new public spending that might be made necessary by the energy crisis" would lead to "a cancellation of spending that was planned, down to the euro", in order to "meet (the) objectives for 2026".

"Transparency"

The government has already announced €130 million in support spending to address the crisis: €70 million to help transporters, fishermen, and farmers, and €60 million to bolster the energy voucher program. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu indicated on Friday that a further aid package would be announced in May for the sectors most affected.

"You can feel that France is really being watched closely by the markets, and the government is very aware of this," emphasizes Maxime Darmet. "There is a real desire to avoid increasing the deficits at all costs," he notes.

During this meeting, "I expect first of all a cancellation of credits," the general rapporteur of the budget at the National Assembly, Philippe Juvin (LR), told AFP.

"Next, I expect transparency on the actual figures for the projected deficit," because "it is essential to know precisely where we stand," he added. "Third, I expect more robust forecasting," the MP continued.

"I hope for transparency on the forecasts and how the budget will slip with the effect of the war," explained the president (LFI) of the Finance Committee of the Assembly, Eric Coquerel.

"Based on that, I don't really see how we can avoid an amending finance bill," he judged.