The Bank of France will revise its economic growth forecasts for France in 2026 downwards.

In his first public address as governor, at the Paris Finance Forum, Emmanuel Moulin indicated that the new economic forecasts will incorporate "less growth and more inflation." This direction confirms the statements made last week by his predecessor, François Villeroy de Galhau.

Economic prospects clouded by uncertainties

Faced with an economic environment marked by numerous uncertainties, the Bank of France plans to present several hypotheses for the evolution of the French economy.

"In a context of great uncertainty, we will have several scenarios," stressed Emmanuel Moulin, adding that "it is very difficult to make predictions at the moment."

The governor specifically mentioned the disappointing results of the first quarter of 2026. "Obviously, we had an unpleasant surprise in the first quarter," he said, as INSEE reported a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0,1%.

However, he urged caution in interpreting this decline: "I will not draw too many conclusions from this figure, because there were specific issues at play in the first quarter," notably a sharp contraction in exports.

Household consumption remains insufficient

Beyond the temporary decline in GDP, Emmanuel Moulin expressed concern about the persistent weakness in household consumption, a key driver of economic activity.

"We also have, which is also worrying, the fact that consumption is still quite low," he explained, believing that this situation "will weigh on the rest of the year."

The governor reaffirmed that "Our forecast will be below 0,9%" and that it "will show less growth and more inflation, to a degree that will be different depending on the scenario."

Forecasts already revised by the IMF and the government

This upcoming revision is part of a broader trend of deterioration in the French economic outlook.

On June 1st, François Villeroy de Galhau had already announced that the Bank of France's forecasts would be "revised downwards".

For its part, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecast for France in 2026 in May, from 0,9% to 0,7%. The French government had also slightly revised its projections downward in mid-April, setting its growth target at 0,9% for 2026, compared to 1% previously.

ECB: Emmanuel Moulin remains discreet on interest rates

Regarding European monetary policy, Emmanuel Moulin gave no indication of the decisions the European Central Bank (ECB) might make at its meeting on Thursday. Markets and analysts, however, anticipate an interest rate hike.

"I am in a period of reserve, so I will not speak about monetary policy," Mr. Moulin said at the beginning of his speech.

The three priorities of the new governor of the Bank of France

Finally, Emmanuel Moulin outlined the main themes of his mandate as head of the Bank of France. His priorities will revolve around "monetary strategy," "monetary sovereignty," and "financial stability," within a European economic context marked by slowing growth and inflationary pressures.