The Bank of France forecasts limited growth of 0,2% in the third quarter

French growth is expected to reach 0,2% in the third quarter of 2026, the same rate as in the previous quarter, according to the Bank of France's monthly business survey. This estimate is slightly higher than that of the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), which in June projected a 0,1% increase in gross domestic product.

This forecast remains "subject to significant uncertainty". specifies the Bank of France.

The institution cites, in particular, the risk of further heat waves, as the drought continues to worsen in France and two-thirds of groundwater levels were below normal at the beginning of August. The situation in the Middle East and the lack of available mid-quarter data are other sources of uncertainty.

Slowed growth in the industry

Industrial activity continued to grow in July, but at a slower pace than business leaders had anticipated. The Bank of France survey is based on responses from 8.500 executives.

The clothing and textile sector was particularly affected by weak sales during the summer sales period. In the aerospace industry, a temporary decline in production and persistent supply chain disruptions weighed on activity.

Industrial production has nevertheless benefited from investments made in technology, energy and defense.

"Electrical equipment continues to benefit from the development of data centers and the electrification of infrastructure," notes the Bank of France.

Commercial services supported by tourism

Activity also increased in the market services sector, but at a moderate pace. Car repair and accommodation benefited from the tourist season, unlike restaurants and leisure activities.

"The restaurant and leisure sectors are being negatively impacted by the extreme heat and consumer choices," indicates the Bank of France.

The building sector held up in July, but its activity is expected to decline.

The repeated heat waves also affected construction companies. However, activity remained stable in July, supported by finishing work and, more specifically, by air conditioning installations.

This demand was fueled in particular by the equipment needs of public buildings. The business leaders surveyed remain rather optimistic for August in the construction and industrial sectors, and more moderately so in the commercial services sector.

Despite this temporary resistance, the Bank of France believes that construction activity should continue its decline in the third quarter.

A rebound is expected in the energy sector.

After six months of decline, energy activity is expected to rebound in the third quarter. The Bank of France attributes this anticipated development to increased electricity consumption during heat waves.