The Bank of France estimates GDP growth of "at least 0,2%" in the 4th quarter.

"Based on information from our monthly business survey, supplemented by other available data, we estimate that GDP would have grown in the fourth quarter by at least 0,2%," the central bank announced.

Until now, it had already predicted growth of 0,2% at the end of the year. But the latest figures, collected during the last week of December and the first week of January from 8.500 business leaders, add this nuance of "at least" 0,2%, and perhaps "a little above", the Bank's managing director in charge of economic studies, Olivier Garnier, hinted at a press conference.

INSEE has the same forecast, after a robust third quarter at 0,5%.

For the whole of 2025, the two institutes predict growth of 0,9%.

"The activity was quite resilient" in 2025, added Mr. Garnier, especially since both industry and services showed growth in their activity in this survey.

Thus, in the manufacturing sector, "opinion balances" on activity "are above their ten-year average for the seventh consecutive month," notes Mr. Garnier. Therefore, "activity remains strong and, as in previous months, is higher than what business leaders anticipated the previous month."

Similarly, "the rate of utilization of production capacities is on an upward trend, after a low point at the end of 2024".

The sector driving activity remains aeronautics, as well as those related to defense.

However, the balance of opinion on order books is negative, meaning that more business leaders consider them "thin".

The Bank of France noted, however, that in industry, this balance was very slightly positive in January, reflecting "a stabilization of activity".

In the commercial services sector, there is a "continuation of the expansion of activity", "at moderate paces", with heterogeneity across sectors.

Thus, activity increased in December in the accommodation and catering sector, "particularly in connection with foreign and rather high-end clientele, especially in Paris and winter sports," according to Mr. Garnier.

Personal services, publishing and advertising have also progressed.

In contrast, business services experienced a decline in activity in December.

The survey notes "relatively little change" in the construction sector in December and January. This reflects a divergence, explains Mr. Garnier, "between the finishing trades, which are benefiting from energy-efficient renovations, and the structural trades, where activity remains sluggish."

Finally, the survey shows in all three sectors - industry, services, construction - an indicator of uncertainty that has declined compared to the very high level of the summer.

"But we remain well above normal, and the main source of uncertainty relates to budget discussions," according to the economist.

The budget returned to the National Assembly for its second reading on Tuesday.

Despite the optimism displayed by the ministers at Bercy regarding a "compromise" allowing a vote, like that of Social Security in December, the hypotheses of adoption by 49.3 or by ordinances seemed the most likely.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.