Steel: Trade war delays recovery, which will not occur before 2026, according to the European steel lobby

The US-led trade war will delay the recovery of the global steel market, which is "not expected before 2026," the European steel lobby estimated in a quarterly economic report published a few days ago.

While the United States has just doubled its customs duties on steel, bringing them to 50%, as well as those on aluminum, the Eurofer lobby group points out that these measures "have dealt a severe blow to expectations of a recovery in the steel market for 2025."

According to the association, these customs measures further darken the near future of a sector plunged into a historic crisis, punctuated by site closures and announcements of job cuts, a consequence of the setbacks in the construction and automotive sectors, two of its main outlets.

While Eurofer had forecast a return to growth in demand in the previous quarter (+2025%), it is now predicting a decline for the fourth consecutive year, at -2,2%.

"This downward revision is largely attributable to the anticipated - although difficult to quantify - impact of US tariffs and the resulting uncertainty and trade disruptions," Eurofer analyses in this note.

For 2026, Eurofer expects a "rebound" in demand of 3,4%, "subject to a positive development in the industrial outlook and an easing of global trade and geopolitical tensions, which are currently unpredictable."

Since Wednesday, steel and aluminum imported into the United States have been subject to a 50% tariff, compared to 25% since March 12.

This decision has provoked a backlash from the United States' trading partners, who nevertheless maintain that trade negotiations are, overall, making "progress," European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic assured on Wednesday, saying he "strongly" regrets these surcharges.