Social Security deficit expected to be around 24 billion at the end of 2025

With the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) which will be examined from February 3 in the National Assembly, the executive hopes to "stabilize" the deficit at 24 billion, said this source.

The forecasts have become much more gloomy since the first version of the PLFSS for 2025, which in the autumn predicted a deficit contained at 16 billion euros in 2025, thanks to various cost-cutting measures.

At the end of the parliamentary debates, the "compromise" text reached by the joint committee (CMP) had already increased the bill, notably reducing the efforts required of companies from 4 to 1,6 billion via a reduction in exemptions from employer contributions.

With the government's censure in December, other measures fell.

The government planned to under-index the annual revaluation of retirement pensions by 0,8% in order to save more than 3 billion. They were finally increased in January by 2,2% in line with inflation, as required by law.

Since then, under pressure in particular from the Socialist Party, the new Prime Minister François Bayrou has made other concessions: he has raised the national spending target for Health Insurance (Ondam) to give hospitals some breathing space, and has also given up on lowering the reimbursement rate by Health Insurance for medical consultations and medication.

Macroeconomic forecasts have also deteriorated and "all this leads to a heavy deficit" estimated at "between 23 and 25 billion euros" at the end of 2025 depending on the latest decisions that will be made, a parliamentary source assured AFP, confirming information from Les Echos.

The size of the deficit will depend in particular on the fate of "the measure on the seven hours of additional work" per year unpaid, put forward by Minister Catherine Vautrin (Work, Health, Solidarity, Families), this source specified. There is also "still some uncertainty" over possible "measures to save on medicines", she added.

Questioned by AFP, the general rapporteur of the Senate Social Affairs Committee, Elisabeth Doineau, had not received any official projections.

But "this corresponds quite well to the estimates that I made: a negotiated budget as I see it emerging, it is around 25 billion", she said, estimating that the National Assembly should "not support" the idea of ​​seven hours of additional work.