Slight increases in mortgage rates in a still active credit market

Following the slight increases observed in January, February followed a similar pattern. Interest rate schedules registered further moderate upward adjustments, ranging from +0,02 to +0,09 percentage points depending on the term, without triggering any sharp movements.

Banking institutions remain very active and continue to engage in sustained competition to attract new borrowers, particularly for certain profiles and targeted projects.

According to Pretto's data, the average rates observed in February were as follows:

3,27% over 15 years
3,40% over 20 years
3,44% over 25 years

OAT and the economic environment

The Crédit Logement Observatory recently delivered rather pessimistic forecasts for the coming years, anticipating an upward movement in mortgage rates by 2026 and 2027.

These projections should be analyzed with caution. Indeed, one of the main arguments put forward is based on the rise in bond yields. However, currently, the 10-year French government bond (OAT) is showing a downward trend, hovering around 3,43%. And in recent months, a decoupling between mortgage rates and bond yields has been observed.

Banks have demonstrated their ability to avoid automatically passing on macroeconomic fluctuations to their lending criteria, preferring to adjust their margins to maintain their commercial appeal. While there is no guarantee that this effort will continue indefinitely, institutions are clearly pursuing a strategy of attracting new customers through mortgage lending.

For Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto: "Very bullish projections should be viewed with caution. Today, mortgage rates no longer automatically follow bond rates. Banks remain committed to a volume-based approach, which limits sudden fluctuations."

In a context marked by strong economic and political uncertainties - both nationally and internationally, with the upcoming elections in particular - visibility remains limited and makes any anticipation difficult.

A credit market still supported by targeted strategies

While first-time buyers remain key profiles for many banks, February also confirms the rise of more segmented strategies. Some banks are focusing their efforts on specific profiles or projects, through discounts or preferential terms, rather than general rate reductions.

This approach allows institutions to maintain dynamic credit production while controlling their risks, in a market that has become more transparent but still selective.

For Pierre Chapon: "Banks do not all adjust their rates uniformly, and they are using a variety of marketing tools. For borrowers, this reinforces the importance of expert guidance to identify the best opportunities."

Several players are taking an aggressive approach. La Banque Postale, for example, announced a 0,25 percentage point reduction in its rates in February. Other banks are favoring targeted offers aimed at specific profiles or projects identified as strategic: first-time buyers, projects involving renovation work, or even certain professions such as the military (at Crédit Agricole).

PTZ and “Housing Recovery” scheme

At the government level, the passage of the budget through article 49.3 opens the way for the upcoming entry into force of several measures planned in the 2026 finance law. Among them, the re-evaluation of the ceilings and floors of the PTZ could improve the solvency of some households in the coming months.

Furthermore, the “Housing Recovery” tax incentive, recently presented by the Prime Minister, aims to encourage construction and rental investment, with an ambitious target of 400.000 homes per year. Open to all, it will allow investors to offset part of the purchase price and deduct all rental-related expenses, under certain conditions (a minimum rental period of 9 years, capped rent, etc.).

These announcements are important signals for both investors and future buyers, although their concrete effects will depend on how they are implemented.

What will change on February 1, 2026

Reduction in the price of electricity subscriptions

Good news: the subscription price for all electricity supply contracts will decrease from February 1, 2026, for both individuals and professionals.

This decrease is due to a reduction in the transmission tariff contribution (CTA), which funds the pension scheme for employees in the electricity and gas industries. While the impact on the overall bill remains moderate, this decrease nevertheless helps to ease the fixed costs for households, in a context where mandatory expenses remain high.