Housing renovation: an alternative strategy could save 8 billion euros per year

Given the current context, the think tank proposes an alternative path to achieving climate goals at half the additional cost. This strategy would save over €8 billion per year, while guaranteeing the phase-out of fossil fuels from homes by 2050 at the latest.

According to Dominique Bussereau, former minister and president of Equilibre des Energies: "A victim of its own ambitious goals and the current economic climate, the energy renovation strategy for housing seems increasingly unsustainable. It is imperative to refocus public action on the essentials: phasing out fossil fuels. With this study, Équilibre des Énergies proposes a credible path forward, reconciling climate imperatives with economic and social sustainability."

The official strategy: ambitious but out of reach

The current strategy aims to bring the entire housing stock to class B of the DPE by 2050, by combining the phasing out of fossil fuels and thermal insulation pushed to a level of excellence.

This ambition is legitimate, but its implementation faces major funding difficulties, and the results obtained fall far short of expectations.

According to Équilibre des Énergies, it would require an investment of around 790 billion euros by 2050, or 31,6 billion euros per year, compared to the 15 billion euros[1] mobilized each year, public and private combined.

Such a level of investment is unattainable, given the state's budgetary situation and household financial capacity. Under these conditions, it is unrealistic to simultaneously aim for a drastic reduction in consumption and a complete phase-out of fossil fuels by as soon as 2050.

An alternative strategy for €210 billion in savings

Équilibre des Énergies advocates for a more targeted renovation strategy, aligned with the resources that can actually be mobilized and setting as a priority objective, both climatic, economic and strategic: to phase out fossil fuels from the housing sector by 2050.

This pragmatic approach aims to achieve zero emissions at the lowest cost, by combining:

• the systematic replacement of fossil fuel energy systems with low-carbon systems;
• targeted building renovation measures, when they are economically relevant.

With reference to the current EPC, this strategy aims to achieve EPC class C (Climate Labels B and Energy Labels C). It would make it possible to reach a zero-emission housing stock by 2050 at a total cost of 575 billion euros over 25 years, or 23 to 25 billion euros per year, saving 210 billion, or 7.000 euros per dwelling[2].

Towards a gradual electrification of heating

In line with the guidelines put forward by public authorities, Équilibre des Énergies anticipates a massive substitution of fossil equipment with solutions based on decarbonized electricity, foremost among them heat pumps destined to replace fossil boilers still present in 42% of homes.

Given the limitations of biomass resources and the uncertainties surrounding the cost of biogas for households, Équilibre des Énergies estimates that the current stock of approximately 10 million homes heated with gas will have to decrease significantly.

Ultimately, these facilities will only be maintained in situations where decarbonized alternatives are not technically or economically feasible, i.e. at most, two million homes according to the think tank's estimates.

Such a development requires a multi-year strategy for phasing out gas, one that is acceptable from an energy, industrial, and human perspective. Équilibre des Énergies calls on public authorities to develop such a strategy.

Rethinking priorities

Équilibre des Énergies warns of the social risks associated with the current trajectory of prohibiting the rental of F and E rated housing. The implementation of these measures could weaken the rental market and create strong tensions on the housing supply, without any guarantee of proportionate climate efficiency.

The think tank therefore recommends confirming the eradication of the most energy-intensive housing (class G) by 2035 at the latest, but proposes, for the other segments of the stock, the creation of a grey zone grouping the 43% of housing requiring priority treatment, as the European directive on the energy performance of buildings invites.

To download the study: HERE]. and its summary: HERE].

[1] Source: Overview of climate financeI4CE (September 2025)

[2] Based on 30 million primary residences in 2024 in France – source: https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/8251576

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.