Renewable gases "made in France": what will the energy mix be like in 2050?

As the Multiannual Energy Programme has just been published, Coénove reminds us that a purely electro-centric approach is risky and that a multi-energy trajectory is preferable, focused on the diversification of the energy mix, on the complementarity of all decarbonized energies and on accelerating the greening of the gas vector, produced in France.

On the occasion of its 19th Live Innogaz, organised during the week of the International Agricultural Show, Jean-Charles Colas-Roy, President of Coénove, brought together two experts, Christian Couturier, Director of Solagro, and Frédéric Terrisse, President of the renewable gas commission of the Renewable Energy Syndicate (SER), for an exchange devoted to the potential of green gases: "What place for renewable gases in the French energy mix by 2050?"

Biomethane: significant potential and a mature sector

Christian Couturier presented the prospective work carried out by Solagro which integrates agricultural, energy and materials issues in a systemic approach with a territorialized analysis of the different potentials.

The conclusion is clear: to gradually phase out fossil fuels, biomass is a valuable resource. Its use must be rigorously prioritized among human food, animal feed, soil fertility, materials, and energy.

The assumptions made for 2050 allow us to estimate a central scenario of around 200 TWh of renewable gas production, enabling the country to green all its gas consumption, across all uses. These projections thus illustrate a structured energy transition, where green gases play a strategic role due to their local, storable, and renewable nature.

A growing green gas sector at the heart of sovereignty

Frédéric Terrisse recalled the current dynamics of the entire biogas sector, across all technologies: more than 2,000 installations utilizing biogas or biomethane in France by the end of 2025, a continuously growing fleet, and complementary sectors on the path to industrialization, notably pyrogasification (49 projects identified), hydrothermal gasification (24 projects identified) and methanation.

In addition to the potential of renewable gases, there is the potential of "low carbon" gases, which allow for the recycling and recovery of a diverse range of waste.

Beyond energy volumes, renewable gases address a threefold sovereignty challenge:

Energy sovereignty, with an ambition of 15 to 20% of total gas consumption in 2030 and a target of 100% renewable gas in 2050;
Industrial sovereignty, with 70% of equipment of French origin, 3 billion euros in turnover and 11.000 jobs;
Food sovereignty, thanks to the return of digestate to the soil and the reduction of dependence on imported nitrogen fertilizers.

Set a clear course for 2050

The discussions highlighted the need to provide visibility to economic actors. Coénove calls for the trajectory towards the "100% renewable gas by 2050" objective to be placed within a stable and coherent framework, linked to the regular revisions of the PPE, the SNBC and other energy planning tools.

The green gas sector is particularly awaiting the publication of the post-2028 trajectories for Biogas Production Certificates, a mechanism that guarantees the financing of an increasingly large share of biomethane production projects.

For Jean-Charles Colas-Roy, Chairman of Coénove: "The question is no longer whether renewable gases will have a place in tomorrow's energy mix, but how to organize their development in a way that is consistent with our climate, agricultural, and industrial objectives. It is by thinking about the complementarity of energies, energy efficiency, and sovereignty that we will build a robust and realistic mix by 2050."

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.