Renewable energy slows down, making it difficult to triple capacity

Last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) still believed it was possible to achieve this target, decided in the final agreement of COP28 in Dubai in 2023.

But according to its latest annual report published Tuesday, global energy capacity produced from solar, wind and hydropower is expected to "reach 2,6 times its 2022 level by 2030."

This increase allows the share of renewable energies in global electricity to reach 34,3% in the first half of the year, thus surpassing that of coal, which fell to 33,1%, while gas is at 23%, according to a separate report from the think tank Ember.

"Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the growing global demand for electricity," said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, an analyst at Ember.

But this growth is slowing and forecasts for renewable energy capacity "are 5% lower" than last year, "reflecting policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024," the IEA estimates.

There are two main reasons for this, the agency notes: the anticipated elimination of federal tax incentives in the United States and other regulatory changes, which have led the IEA to reduce its forecasts for the American market by almost 50% compared to last year.

The second is China's shift from regulated tariffs to an auction system for the purchase of renewable electricity, which "affects the profitability of projects" and leads to a reduction in the country's growth forecasts.

The IEA now forecasts an increase in global renewable energy capacity of 4.600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, "roughly equivalent to the total generation capacity of China, the European Union and Japan combined."

A year ago, it was still counting on a near tripling with more than 5.500 GW of new capacity between 2024 and 2030.

However, the IEA points out, "these adjustments are partly offset by the dynamism of other regions," notably India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies, where growth prospects are being revised upwards.

Geographically, China still leads the way, but India "is poised to become the world's second-largest renewable energy growth market," with capacity expected to increase 2,5-fold in five years.

In the European Union, forecasts have been revised slightly upwards, thanks in particular to Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland, while those for the Middle East and North Africa have increased by 25%.

Decline in fossil fuel imports

Solar photovoltaics alone will account for around 80% of the global increase in renewable capacity over the next five years, the IEA estimates, followed by wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal.

The latter is on track to reach "historic peaks" in key markets, notably the United States, Japan and Indonesia.

Hydroelectricity is also expected to experience strong growth due to the advantages it offers for balancing electricity networks, thanks to pumped energy transfer stations.

And despite supply chain issues, rising costs and permitting delays, global wind power capacity is expected to nearly double by 2030, the agency adds.

Offshore wind, on the other hand, sees its growth prospects decline compared to last year due to "policy changes in key markets," notably the United States, the IEA indicates.

"The deployment of renewable energy has already significantly reduced the need for fuel imports in many countries," the agency emphasizes, but the flexibility of electricity networks must be increased to better integrate them.

Intermittent by nature, they are expected to produce nearly 30% of the world's electricity supply by 2030, double today's figure.

"The reduction in (electricity) production and negative prices (when supply exceeds demand, editor's note) signal a lack of flexibility" while solutions exist, including smart chargers for electric vehicles, flexible supply and electricity storage.