Real estate transactions in France are expected to reach their highest level in 2026

The latest analysis from eXp France suggests that residential real estate transactions could increase by 1,2% in 2026, bringing the annual market activity to approximately 962.500 sales of existing homes.

eXp France analyzed historical transaction data provided by IGEDD and applied an ETS (exponential smoothing) forecasting model, including interpolation and based on a median-bound confidence interval, to estimate the potential performance of the French real estate market in 2026.

After a long period of market correction, transaction volumes have already shown signs of recovery. After falling from a post-pandemic peak of 1,23 million sales in 2021 to 845.000 transactions in 2024, the French market rebounded strongly in 2025, with completed sales increasing by 12,5% to reach 951.000 transactions.

The latest forecasts suggest this recovery could continue into 2026, with transaction volume estimated at 962.500 sales. While this represents a much more modest annual increase of 1,2%, it would mark the highest level of activity since 2022, when 1,17 million existing homes changed hands.

It is important to note that the projected slowdown in growth for 2026 could indicate that the market is moving beyond the recovery phase and entering a period of greater stability. Rather than being driven by a sharp rebound after a period of weakness, trading activity appears to be stabilizing at a healthier level, supported by increased buyer confidence and a more balanced supply and demand ratio.

According to Samuel Caux, director of eXp France: “The French property market has already demonstrated strong resilience over the past year, with transaction volumes returning to growth in 2025 after a challenging period for the sector. Our forecasts suggest this positive momentum could continue in 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace. In many respects, this is an encouraging sign, as it indicates a market stabilizing rather than one experiencing short-term volatility. The fact that transaction volumes could reach their highest level since 2022 demonstrates that confidence continues to return among both buyers and sellers, and that the market remains fundamentally healthy despite the challenges it has faced in recent years. Over the long term, the French property market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and an ability to adapt to changing economic conditions. As a result, we remain optimistic about the outlook for the year ahead.”