Real estate review 2025 and initial trends for 2026

To remember :

• Between September 2024 and September 2025, the volume of transactions in the existing housing market increased, a trend that is expected to continue until the end of the year.
• Between September 2024 and September 2025, prices showed a very slight increase for older apartments and remained stable for older houses.
• Since the end of 2024, the new housing market has been recovering slightly.
• The decline in building plot transactions continues

According to Ms. Priscille Caignault, member of the board of the High Council of Notaries in charge of real estate: “After two years of marked decline, the real estate market began its recovery in the last quarter of 2024, which continued throughout 2025. Our optimism remains measured given the political, economic, and geopolitical uncertainties that continue to weaken the outlook for the real estate market and prevent a strong rebound. The French have a definite appetite for property. But they are sensitive to a stable economic and political environment, which is a guarantee of confidence.”

Key real estate figures for 2025

Transaction volume is starting to rise again

As of the end of September 2025, the number of existing home transactions completed in France (including overseas departments, excluding Mayotte) over the previous 12 months is estimated at 921.000, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 11%. For comparison, this volume is similar to that of June 2017 (923.000 transactions) or January 2024 (915.000 transactions).

Stable prices for houses, slight increase for apartments

• +1,3%: the year-on-year increase in the price index for older apartments in metropolitan France (in the 3rd quarter of 2025)
• +0,2%: the year-on-year increase in the price index for older houses in metropolitan France (in the 3rd quarter of 2025)
• In apartments, according to projections for the 4th quarter of 2025 and the end of January 2026, the trend would be slightly upward with annual changes close to +2%, both in Île-de-France and in the provinces.
• For homes, forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the end of January 2026 anticipate a slight recovery. Annual changes are expected to be around +1% in the provinces and slightly stronger in the Île-de-France region at 2,1%.

Real estate purchasing power:

The first 9 months of 2025 confirm the increase that began in 2024, with a further year-on-year increase of 4%, bringing the financeable surface area in 2025 back to the same level as in 2022, at 81 m².

New housing has seen a slight recovery recently

• Although the volume of sales in the existing housing market has been rising since the end of 2024, the new apartment market has only shown slight signs of recovery since the second quarter of 2025.
• At the end of September 2025, the number of new apartments sold cumulatively over the last 12 months in France (including overseas departments, excluding Mayotte) shows a moderate increase of +2% for the 2nd consecutive quarter.
• At the end of September 2025, the volume of transactions remains 35% lower than that observed two years ago.

A decline in building plot transactions continues

• Although the decline in the number of building plot transactions was already well underway, its acceleration occurred in 2024, at the same time as the announcement of the exclusion of individual houses from the PTZ scheme.
• The number of building plot transactions, cumulatively over 12 months, has been reduced by a third in one year, falling from 70.000 transactions in the 3rd quarter of 2023 to 45.000 in the 3rd quarter of 2024.
• During this period, the annual decline accelerated between the 3rd quarter of 2023 and the 3rd quarter of 2024, going from -31% to -36%.
• Since the 4th quarter of 2024, sales of building land have been decreasing less rapidly, particularly since the 2nd quarter of 2025, down -18% year-on-year and -10% in the following quarter.

Green value of housing

In 2024, the share of very energy-inefficient housing stopped increasing and even registered a slight decrease of 2 percentage points (it remained at this level at the beginning of 2025, at 15% in the second quarter). This observation is consistent across all market segments: the share of sales of very energy-inefficient housing also increased between 2021 and 2023, from 9% to 12% for multi-family dwellings and from 12% to 19% for single-family homes. However, it declines from 2024 onwards in the housing market and in early 2025 in the apartment market, falling back to 10% and 17% respectively in the second quarter of 2025. It is worth noting that the share of sales of existing apartments with a C energy rating is gradually increasing, particularly at the beginning of 2025, rising from 20% to 24% between 2021 and 2024, reaching 28% in the second quarter of 2025. Conversely, the share of sales classified as D and E falls from 64% in 2021 to 59% in 2024, then to 57% in the second quarter of 2025.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.