Existing properties: prices fall by 0,8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026

The recovery of the existing home market has stalled. In the second quarter of 2026, prices fell by 0,8% year-on-year in mainland France (excluding Mayotte), according to the Notaires-Insee index. Compared to the previous quarter, the decline reached 1% in provisional, seasonally adjusted figures.

In the first quarter of 2026, prices remained stable year-on-year. This followed a 1,1% increase during 2025.

The recovery of transactions is interrupted.

At the end of June 2026, the number of sales made over the past twelve months is estimated at 958.000, compared to 953.000 at the end of March and 952.000 at the end of December 2025. The level of activity has therefore been virtually stable since the beginning of the year.

The annual volume of transactions had recovered between October 2024 and December 2025, after a continuous decline that began at the end of April 2022. This period was marked by the rapid rise in interest rates, which reduced household borrowing capacity and triggered a crisis affecting both the existing market and new construction.

Sales recorded over twelve months currently represent 2,5% of the housing stock. This proportion remains significantly lower than the peak of 3,3% reached in the third quarter of 2021.

Political uncertainties are weighing on confidence

The Notaires-Insee index measures price changes, but cannot alone determine the causes of the observed downturn. Representatives of real estate professionals nevertheless point to rising interest rates, the economic consequences of the war in the Middle East, and the uncertainties surrounding the French presidential campaign.

Elodie Frémont, president of the real estate statistics commission of the Notaries of Greater Paris, believes that market players are now paying attention to the proposals of candidates and their possible consequences on taxation, credit and housing.

Loïc Cantin, president of the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim), believes that "the war in the Middle East was a triggering effect." According to him, its impact on energy prices and inflation is weakening household purchasing power, while the presidential campaign is reinforcing a wait-and-see attitude.

The rate for new loans has risen to 3,27%

In June 2026, the average interest rate on new mortgage loans, excluding renegotiations, stood at 3,27%, compared to 3,21% in May, according to the Bank of France. This rate, which does not include insurance and other financing-related costs, has returned to a level comparable to that observed in February 2025.

The average effective rate charged for fixed-rate mortgage loans with a term of 20 years or more reached 3,97% in the second quarter of 2026. This indicator includes the mandatory fees, commissions, guarantees and insurance required to obtain the loan.

The rising cost of financing reduces household purchasing power, even when housing prices fall. It particularly penalizes first-time buyers and households with limited savings.

House prices are more affected

Nationally, prices for older apartments are almost stable year-on-year, with a decline limited to 0,1%. House prices, on the other hand, have decreased by 1,3%.

For Loïc Cantin, this difference is mainly due to the cost of any work that may be required after the purchase. "Houses are directly impacted by the need to undertake energy renovation work," he explains, adding that a poor energy performance rating can negatively affect the property's value.

Energy efficiency, however, is only one factor among others in determining the price. Location, the overall condition of the property, the level of supply and demand, and the cost of financing remain crucial.

A Parisian market that remains fragile

In the Île-de-France region, prices for existing homes fell by 0,3% year-on-year in the second quarter. The decline was driven by houses, whose value decreased by 1,5%, while apartments increased by 0,3%.

The average price of apartments in the Île-de-France region is 6.130 euros per m². In Paris, it reaches 9.560 euros per m².

Over the quarter, prices in the Île-de-France region fell by 0,6%. Apartments declined by 0,5% and houses by 0,7%. However, the trend varied across different areas: apartment prices decreased in Paris and the inner suburbs, but increased in the outer suburbs.

“Activity is resuming cautiously, as it is dependent on an uncertain economic environment and deteriorating household confidence. It is really difficult for us to predict with certainty a lasting consolidation of the market, as the presidential political context weighs heavily on this confidence,” warns Elodie Frémont, president of the real estate statistics commission of the Notaries of Greater Paris.

Prices are also falling in the provinces

In the provinces, prices for existing homes fell by 1% year-on-year. The decline reached 1,3% for houses, compared to 0,3% for apartments. In the second quarter alone, the drop was more pronounced, at 1,2%.

The French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) has also revised its price growth forecast for the first quarter of 2026. Initially estimated at +0,2% compared to the previous three months, it now stands at -0,2%, a correction of 0,4 percentage points. The data for the second quarter remain provisional and may also be adjusted in future publications.

Image illustrating the article via Depositphotos.com.