New-build market in spring 2026: rates slightly rising in a context of still constrained access to credit

The profile of borrowers is nevertheless evolving, with a return of households further along in life and with rising incomes, supported by an expanded zero-interest loan program. Between targeted public support, strained purchasing power, and still selective access to credit, the new-build market confirms a fragile recovery, driven primarily by the most financially secure borrowers.

New real estate: a two-speed market depending on the city

In spring 2026, new-build property prices recorded by the website Trouver-un-logement-neuf.com remained generally on an upward trend in major French cities, a sign of a market still under pressure. Paris largely retained its position as the most expensive city in France for a new two-bedroom apartment, with an average price now reaching €940.900, an increase of 8,55% over six months.

Nice remains the second most expensive metropolitan area, with a three-bedroom apartment averaging €571.800, and shows the strongest growth among the cities surveyed (+16,62%). This upward trend, as in Paris, is explained by persistent supply pressure and the upgrading of certain developments. Lille (€333.700; +10,06%) also has a very limited supply. Lyon (€399.900; +3,28%) retains its position among the three most expensive major cities.

Conversely, some cities have seen more pronounced adjustments. Strasbourg has seen the average price of a two-bedroom apartment fall to €283.500 (-5,22%), Toulouse to €267.800 (-4,63%), and Montpellier to €271.300 (-3,62%)—cities where local authorities have supported supply and demand in recent months. Marseille (€312.200; +6,41%) has now overtaken Bordeaux (€288.300; +3,52%) in the ranking of the most expensive cities. Despite an increase of nearly 5%, Nantes has become the most affordable city in this top 10, with an average price of €259.300 for a new two-bedroom apartment, dethroning Toulouse.

For Céline Coletto, spokesperson for Find-un-logement-neuf.com: “Faced with these rising prices, developers are using a variety of strategies to support demand: optimizing floor plans to minimize wasted space, commercial offers, free notary fees, subsidized loans, and enhanced support for investors, particularly regarding rental management under the new Jeanbrun scheme. The property development sector is thus seeking a new balance between price control, commercial appeal, and launching new real estate projects to sustain its business.”

Content rates and public mechanisms: real but regulated support

Rates have seen a steady but contained rise, remaining between 3,3% and 3,5%, despite still high key interest rates and complex economic and geopolitical constraints.

At the same time, banks maintain a high level of selectivity: access to credit remains conditional on solid applications, which limits the opening of the market to the most modest households, particularly among first-time buyers with little down payment or wishing to buy in high-demand areas.

In this context, the Jeanbrun scheme supports investment in new rental properties through a more flexible tax depreciation mechanism than the Pinel scheme. However, its application and mechanics are more technical, its impact remains limited by ceilings, a long commitment period, and more demanding management. Combined with an expanded zero-interest loan (PTZ), it helps maintain the relative attractiveness of new-build properties, while primarily benefiting those with the strongest and most financially structured profiles.

A borrower profile that is evolving, under constraint

Between autumn 2025 and spring 2026, the profile of borrowers in new construction changes significantly.

The average age is rising from 35 to 37, reflecting a shift towards more established profiles with more stable professional and financial situations. At the same time, the average income is increasing from €4.567 to €5.357, confirming this move upmarket among borrowers, despite the support of the expanded zero-interest loan program.

The main residence remains largely dominant but is declining, with a share falling from 95% to 90,6%, while rental investment is increasing to 8,8% (+4 points), supported by the introduction of the Jeanbrun scheme, which is restoring some appeal to new properties for investors despite a still restrictive framework.

Finally, the average budget increased from €299.336 to €334.751, confirming that new construction remains a high-priced market. The zero-interest loan (PTZ) acts as a buffer here, without fully offsetting the level of investment required to access this segment.

Borrowing capacity under pressure, despite stabilization

A slight increase observed in spring 2026 (+0,10 to +0,20 point) leads to an adjustment in real estate purchasing power.

For a monthly payment of €1.000, borrowing capacity decreases slightly, between -0,89% and -1,77% depending on the city. The differences remain moderate, with slightly more pronounced decreases in Paris and Marseille, while some major cities like Nantes show near-stability.

According to Caroline Pasquereau, Director of Strategic Marketing and Communication: “The homogenization of rates between regions over the observed period illustrates a market that is gradually reaching equilibrium. After more pronounced adjustments depending on the territory, the rates are converging more, which reflects a form of normalization of banking strategies. This trend does not eliminate local disparities, but it makes them more contained and more predictable for borrowers, with a direct but measured impact on their real estate purchasing power.”

This evolution remains gradual, without abrupt break, but confirms a persistent tension on borrowing capacity.

Purchasing power declines for equivalent projects

Between autumn 2025 and spring 2026, the average monthly mortgage payment in major cities will increase from approximately €2.293 to €2.412, representing a rise of nearly 5%. Over 20 years, this translates to an additional cost of €50.000 to €60.000 per borrower (excluding insurance).

In this context, only households with a solid repayment capacity or a significant down payment retain a real room for maneuver.

Local disparities persist: some cities, such as Strasbourg, Montpellier, and Toulouse, are seeing a decrease in monthly payments (of around 3 to 4%), generating savings of up to €18.000 over the loan term. Conversely, in most major metropolitan areas, households must choose between reducing their budget, extending the loan term, or postponing the project.

For Caroline Pasquereau: "In this context, only households with a good repayment capacity or a significant down payment retain real room for maneuver, while those with more modest incomes or first-time buyers see their access to homeownership become more difficult."

What are the short-term prospects?

For Caroline Pasquereau: “In the short term, the mortgage market is evolving in a context of gradual recovery under pressure, between still high rates and stricter banking requirements. Public schemes, such as the expanded zero-interest loan (PTZ) or the Jeanbrun mechanism, provide real but targeted support, which is not enough to trigger a general recovery. The new-build market should therefore remain driven by the most financially secure borrowers, while access to homeownership remains constrained for some households.”

For Céline Coletto: “While new builds remain more expensive to purchase, it’s now essential to consider the overall long-term cost. A new home, better optimized and compliant with the latest energy standards, helps limit future expenses: fewer renovations are needed, energy bills are more stable thanks to the gradual electrification of housing, an excellent energy performance certificate (EPC) avoids the constraints associated with energy-inefficient properties, not to mention certain tax advantages such as the possibility of temporary property tax exemption. Beyond the initial purchase price, new builds now offer buyers greater visibility, comfort, and security as an investment.”

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.