Mortgage rates are starting to rise slightly this fall.

The start of the 2026 academic year marks a gradual shift in the mortgage market. According to data released by Pretto, average rates now reach 3,43% for 15-year loans, 3,54% for 20-year loans, and 3,61% for 25-year loans.

This trend remains contained, but it comes after several months during which banks absorbed part of the increase in their funding costs to support loan production. Institutions are now gradually reducing the discounts granted to the best loan applications.

The 10-year French government bond (OAT) is increasing pressure on mortgage rates.

The bond market experienced several fluctuations over the summer. After briefly exceeding the 4% threshold in May and then July, the French 10-year OAT is now trading above this level, according to Pretto. This would be a level not seen since 2009.

This increase is the main point of concern for mortgage financing. Banks do not immediately pass on every change in the French government bond (OAT) rate to their lending rates, but the sustained increase in their refinancing costs eventually reduces their room for maneuver.

The French political context could also maintain volatility in the coming weeks, with discussions around the draft budget for 2027 and the launch of the presidential campaign.

Pretto believes, however, that the current rise in the French government bond (OAT) is primarily due to the international context. Persistent tensions between Iran and the United States are fueling uncertainty in energy markets. Brent crude is trading around $90 a barrel, compared to approximately $68 a year ago, reviving questions about the inflation outlook.

The European Central Bank faces a new dilemma

After leaving its rates unchanged in July, the European Central Bank is due to make a new monetary policy decision on September 10, 2026. The key interest rates in force are 2,25% for the deposit facility, 2,40% for the main refinancing operations and 2,65% for the marginal lending facility.

The ECB will have to determine whether these levels remain appropriate to the economic and inflationary context. Its influence on mortgage lending should, however, be distinguished from that of bond markets: when setting their rates, banks also take into account their medium- and long-term financing conditions.

For borrowers, the decision of September 10 will therefore be an important indicator, but it will not alone determine the evolution of mortgage rates.

Less generous discounts, but credit still accessible

The most noticeable change as the start of the academic year approaches concerns not so much the published rates as the rates actually negotiated. Pretto observes an upward trend accompanied by a tightening of the discounts granted to the strongest applications.

Banks are thus beginning to take into account the tensions observed in the markets, while still pursuing their business objectives. They remain willing to offer competitive terms to the profiles they wish to attract.

“The start of the academic year marks a shift in tone in the mortgage market. After absorbing some of the rise in market rates to maintain their lending activity, banks are beginning to reduce their negotiating margins. We are therefore entering a phase of gradual rate increases, but not a new credit shock: institutions remain focused on attracting new business and continue to compete for the best applications.” — Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto

Financing conditions vary depending on the region.

The anticipated rise in interest rates is not expected to eliminate disparities between regions. The terms offered remain closely linked to the commercial policies of local banking networks and the quality of loan applications.

Over a 25-year period, Pretto publishes the best negotiated rates and the following standard rates as of September 2026:

• Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: 3,29% for the best rates, compared to 3,56% on the scale;
• Burgundy-Franche-Comté: 3,23%, compared to 3,50%;
• Britain : 3,25%, compared to 3,55%;
• Center-Val de Loire: 3,15%, compared to 3,50%;
• Racing : 3,40%, compared to 3,76%;
• Great East: 3,35%, compared to 3,70%;
• Hauts-de-France: 3,15%, compared to 3,52%;
• Ile-de-France : 3,12%, compared to 3,49%;
• Normandy: 3,15%, compared to 3,50%;
• New Aquitaine: 3,20%, compared to 3,59%;
• Occitanie: 3,40%, compared to 3,60%;
• Pays de la Loire : 3,12%, compared to 3,52%;
• Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur : 3,40%, compared to 3,70%.

These fixed rates over 25 years were observed by Pretto in September 2026 for single borrowers with annual incomes between 80.000 and 120.000 euros.

In a market that is slightly less favorable than in the spring, the gap between borrower profiles could continue to widen. Borrowers with a substantial down payment, high income, or a project that aligns with a bank's business priorities retain more negotiating power.

“With the French government bond yield now clearly above 4%, the risk of mortgage rates reaching this level by the end of the year is becoming credible, but certainly not inevitable. The remaining preferential offers show that banks are continuing to make commercial choices. In reality, 4% could become a market rate before it becomes a rate for all borrowers.” — Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto

First-time buyers and high-income earners are still in demand.

Despite the rise in the OAT (French Treasury bond), banking competition remains active. Institutions have not abandoned their production targets and continue to use targeted offers to attract specific customer segments.

First-time buyers remain at the heart of this strategy. Pretto cites the Caisse d'Épargne's 0% First-Time Buyer Loan and the Crédit Agricole's Booster Mon 1er Toit scheme, announced as valid until October 15, 2026.

Higher socio-professional categories can also benefit from attractive positions with institutions like BNP Paribas and CCF, even though Pretto anticipates an increase of 0,10 points.

“What we’re seeing this fall isn’t a closing credit market, but one that’s gradually becoming more selective. Banks are still lending, but they’re less willing to offset the increase in their financing costs with significant discounts. For borrowers, the gap between a strong application and a merely adequate one is therefore likely to widen in the coming months.” — Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto

What is the cost of a mortgage at 3,54% over 20 years?

Excluding insurance, the simulations carried out by Pretto in September 2026 give the following results:

• For 150.000 euros borrowed: a monthly payment of 873 euros and a total cost of credit of 59.520 euros;
• For 200.000 euros borrowed: a monthly payment of 1.164 euros and a total cost of 79.360 euros;
• For 250.000 euros borrowed: a monthly payment of 1.455 euros and a total cost of 99.200 euros;
• For 300.000 euros borrowed: a monthly payment of 1.746 euros and a total cost of 119.040 euros.

These examples are based on a nominal rate of 3,54% over 20 years, excluding insurance.

Loans with a 25-year term remain by far the most common.

The slight rise in interest rates does not significantly alter the loan terms requested. More than two-thirds of the loans financed by Pretto are for 25-year terms.

• In 2023: 6,4% of the loans were taken out for 15 years, 21% for 20 years and 72,6% for 25 years;
• In 2024: 7,2% over 15 years, 19,6% over 20 years and 73,1% over 25 years;
• In 2025: 5,5% over 15 years, 17,8% over 20 years and 76,7% over 25 years;
• From January to August 2026: 5,5% over 15 years, 17,8% over 20 years and 76,7% over 25 years.

This data relates to more than 15.000 cases financed by Pretto.