Mortgage lending: despite geopolitical tensions, banks remain aggressive in June

According to Pretto's data, the average rates observed in June 2026 are:

• 3,37% over 15 years
• 3,47% over 20 years
• 3,53% over 25 years

National rates in June 2026 (based on annual net income before taxes):

Change in rates from June to May 2026:

The evolution of rates observed by Pretto:

In June, we observed slight upward adjustments to interest rates, ranging from -0,01 to +0,15 points, depending on the loan term and borrower profile. These variations remained moderate and primarily affected short-term loans (15 years) and high incomes (over €80 net per year).

Markets remain tense, but a lull in the OAT market.

The month of May was marked by high volatility in the bond markets. The 10-year OAT, a key benchmark for bank financing, temporarily crossed the symbolic 4% threshold on May 20, before falling back to around 3,61% (rate as of 28/05/2026).

This relative easing of tensions remains fragile, however. Investors continue to closely monitor diplomatic discussions between the United States and Iran, as well as persistent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a major strategic route for global hydrocarbon transport.

According to Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto: “Markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical risk. But what we are seeing most of all today is that French banks are not panicking. They continue to finance, to compete for the best profiles, and to support the real estate market.”

The ECB is once again under scrutiny

Markets are now closely watching the next meeting of the European Central Bank, scheduled for June 11. While no decision has yet been made, several voices within the institution are now advocating for monetary tightening in response to the return of inflationary pressures in Europe.

Among them, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, is one of the officials most in favor of raising key interest rates. The backdrop to this is the lasting impact of the war in Iran on European energy supplies and renewed pressure on prices. In France, inflation rose to 2,5% in April. According to provisional data from INSEE (the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies), consumer prices are expected to increase by 0,7% in May.

The scenario of a 0,25 point increase is now being discussed by several analysts, which would bring the ECB's deposit rate to 2,25%.

However, this situation has not, at this stage, provoked a sudden reaction from French banks. Despite the recent surge in the 10-year French government bond (OAT) above 4%, banking institutions have generally maintained their commercial policies and continue to actively finance real estate projects.

Even though a rise in key interest rates could gradually put pressure on bank lending rates in the coming months, the preferred scenario today remains that of limited adjustments rather than a sudden reversal in the mortgage market.

Banks remain in the commercial battle

Despite this uncertain environment, banks are active. Interest rate adjustments observed in recent weeks have been moderate. Some banks, such as Société Générale, are announcing a rate cut in June, while others continue to offer aggressive promotions to attract high-quality loan applications.

This is particularly the case with LCL, which is launching a particularly aggressive “Flash Sale” offer, with amortizable financing at 1,99%, over a period of between 24 and 300 months.

The offer, available until June 27, 2026, is reserved for first-time buyers, acquisitions in new (RT2012 or RE2020) or in old housing classified A, B or C in the DPE.

These measures illustrate a clear trend: despite a more complex financial environment, banks are still seeking to attract creditworthy borrowers.

What concrete impact does this have on the cost of a mortgage?

Despite the fluctuations observed in the markets, financing conditions remain favorable compared to the extreme tensions experienced between 2022 and 2023.

Here is the concrete impact of financing at 3,47% over 20 years:

Regional disparities remain significant in rates

In June, the Île-de-France region maintained the most competitive conditions, with the best rates below 3% for 15-year loans (2,95%) and close to 3,10% for 20-year loans (nominal rate excluding insurance as of May 28, 2026). Conversely, some regions still showed rates nearly 0,30 percentage points higher for longer terms.

These differences reflect commercial policies that vary considerably depending on the banking networks, the regional objectives of the institutions and the intensity of local competition.

In a market where banks continue to carefully select the applications they wish to finance, the quality of the borrower profile and competition between institutions remain crucial to obtaining the best conditions.

A recovery in mortgage lending that is confirmed

The real estate market continues to gradually normalize after two particularly difficult years.

Mortgage lending in the first quarter of 2026 shows an increase of approximately 6% compared to 2025, evidence that households are gradually returning to the market.

However, the level of activity remains lower than in the boom years:

• approximately 56 billion euros produced in Q1 2022,
• compared to nearly 38 billion in Q1 2026.

This recovery therefore remains gradual, but it confirms that the market has emerged from the blockage phase observed between 2022 and 2024.

Comparing banks remains more strategic than ever.

In a market where each bank manages its objectives very precisely, significant differences in conditions remain from one institution to another.

According to analyses by Finspot, Pretto's proprietary bank scanner, several tens of thousands of euros can still separate two bank offers on the same file.

According to Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto: “We are no longer in the static market of 2023. Today, banks are constantly weighing profitability against business development. As a result, the differences are considerable for the same loan application. For borrowers, the real issue is no longer just the level of interest rates, but the ability to identify at the right time the bank that truly wants to finance their profile.”

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.